Bowling and Forecasting

Bowling isn't a sport of strength and force, as much as it is about finesse.  With that said, bowling and forecasting have a lot in common.

To help make this analogy a little clearer I will compare it to this weeks forecast.  It should be pretty quiet for now until next weekend.  The three latest models have all been agreeing on the Miami Valley seeing the most snow we have seen this year in one system arriving for Saturday.

Now to the comparison.... I imagine the bowling lanes (60 feet) equivalent to two days of forecasting.... The first half of the lane (30 feet) is the first day, you can pretty much know when you release the bowling ball that it will stay in the lane.  When you start getting to the second day, or the second half of the lane, things start getting interesting.... normally it will stay out of the gutter and knock over a few pins.  If you are lucky and your forecast is spot-on, you get a strike.  Now imagine all the angles you could throw the ball, you threw it down the lane and not sideways, and for the most part hitting at least one of the pins is reasonably do-able, if not a few pins. 

Now comes the fun part.... Imagine, if you will, taking that lane and doubling its length... now you went from 60 feet to 120 feet.  A bit more challenging then right?  You bet!!  The ball may have a little hidden momentum that may catch you and the ball off guard and send it into the gutter right before you hit the pins.  With that said, I would wager with enough practice 120 feet would eventually be successfully completed but still remain challenging.

So we took a look at extending the forecast to 4 days, now what about the snow system we got coming in 6 days????  That would make the lane 180 feet.... woah!! I am pretty sure that even the best bowlers in the world would tell you that it would be pretty challenging to hit a strike.   Sooooo,  lets compare this to the last three model runs of the snow system coming on next Saturday.  The last three model runs have been in pretty much agreement that we will see several inches (3-6 inches) and you could bet to wager that we would at least knock over at least one pin at that distance with the consistency you have built up.

Now the tricky part comes in.... if we shorten up the lane by a day or two (30 or 60 feet), do you think you could still knock over those same pins?  Will there be some previously unforeseen momentum or oil on the lane that may make it slip off course?  One thing is for sure.... If you were bowling at 180 feet, I am betting that you would take up the ball and throw it again when the lane dropped to 150 feet, 120 feet, 90 feet, and especially 60 feet.....  You would want the victory and satisfaction of keep throwing that ball just like you previously did in hopes of continuing knocking over the pins, maybe even a strike....  With that said, I will be back on here later this week to keep you updated as our distance shortens and the forecast becomes a sure-fire strike!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Time to get LOST

So it has finally came.... It is now time for the final season of LOST to begin on ABC starting this Tuesday.  I love the show but if you have never seen the show, you may not understand, but please here me out....

There shall be ABSOLUTELY NO TALKING while LOST is in play.  This is the sole reason I will not partake in any viewing parties.   If I would partake in any viewing parties, I would bring my own TV, a cable splitter and run the feed into the bathroom or closet... NO INTERRUPTIONS.  Now I do love joining in on the lively discussions of the latest questions and mysteries of the island and plot, but in order to fully grasp what happened during the episode, there needs to be complete silence with no interruptions.

IF and that's a big if, I were to attend a viewing party, everyone must be caught up.  During the episode there is no need for silly questions about, "What's that statue?" or "I thought Locke was alive, is he?"  There are a million questions with LOST and you should assume my answer would be "I don't know." 

With all of that said, I am excited to see what the final season has in store.  With the abrupt ending of last season, the gate (or hatch) is blown wide open.... they could all be dead, they could all be in the 70's still, they could all be in the present time on Flight 815, and it goes without saying, that they could also be anywhere on the planet too. Who's to say they haven't been placed in the middle of the Sahara Desert in Tunisia.

Another thing I would like to point out, during season 4 I read spoilers for that season.... worst mistake EVER!!!  It ruins the show and you loose the climax that is LOST.  If you read spoilers and enjoy that, please keep them to yourself.

Anyways, needless to say, the sixth season has to have more answers than questions because for the last 5 seasons we have been left with cliffhangers at commercial breaks leaving us yelling at the TV.  I wish you the best in your LOST journey, and if you would ever want to chat over coffee or some DHARMA drinks let me know!!  Have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Spring with a side of sunshine....

That's what I tried ordering, but it looks like it will be a little while for that...

I do love winter and it was refreshing to melt all the pre-existing snow and get rid of the nastiness and start over with a clean white slate...  With that said though, I am ready for temps back, in the 60's with sunshine.  I was laying in bed last weekend when it was warm and heard a bird chirping in the tree out back and it really made it feel like spring....

I grilled out last week twice when it got "warm" into the 40's.  My neighbors looked at me a little weird like: "Are they REALLY grilling out."  But once the smell of burning charcoal hit their noses, they probably wished they would be doing the same thing.

Anyways, the forecast is calling for slowly warming temperatures through the next seven days, and we should be in the 40's by this time next week.  Little to no precip as well, so hopefully the light snow we have on the ground will be melted by then as well.  Have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Grab the extra blanket!!

Tonight we will see a little snow move in, around 1" or less of accumulation.  Then as we head through the next couple of days we will see COLD temperatures return.  Wind chills will be near or below zero and highs in the afternoon barely able to break the 20 degree mark.  Next shot of snow not until Tuesday, but that looks like a weak system as well and not a major snow expected with it.

Had the privilege to talk to my younger sister's class at school today... It was a lot of fun testing the students on their weather skills.  We were drawing surface maps and I challenged them to draw weather station wind readings in preparation for the OAT test.  Hopefully I helped them learn a little and get them excited as well.  Drive safe on the fresh snow and have a good one!!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Icy Morning

So a big downside to the warm weekend, is what we saw this morning. The pavement warmed up above freezing over the weekend that the first few hours of snow yesterday melted the snow, then once the temperatures finally cooled the blacktop and concrete below freezing, it iced back over.  That coupled with the light snow on top of it makes things even worse because what looks like a little snow actually has hiding underneath of it.  With temperatures in the mid 20's for today, salt should take care of the ice, but untreated roadways will remain icy.  The snow will taper off this afternoon, but more snow is on the way for Wednesday night and Thursday morning.  Accumulations right now look pretty light for the next system, but as many found out this morning, it doesn't take much to cause problems on the roads.  Travel safe and have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Snow returning....

Well the warm temperatures couldn't last forever...  Thought I would pop on here and give an update to the snow headed our way.  As long as the ground doesn't melt off too much of the snow, we could see around another inch by tomorrow at noon.  Things look to be quiet for Wednesday and hopefully a little sunshine for parts of the day.  More snow Wednesday night into Thursday morning, that looks to be pretty light as well.  The system I talked about in the last blog looks to be tracking farther to the south and dumping a lot of snow on Kentucky and parts of Tennessee.... will keep an eye on it though, just in case it swings a little farther to the north...  Have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Sunshine or Warmth?

Today was a GREAT day despite it being January 23rd.  We hit a high of 48 at the Dayton Airport today, fantastic!   With it being so warm and wonderful, the only thing to make it better would have been some sun.  We saw the clouds linger all day today which kept things kinda dreary despite the warm temps. 

We got rain on the way for early Sunday morning and a few light lingering scattered showers through the day.  Temps look to warm up above 50 for tomorrow before we bottom up as we head into the workweek.  A few flurries could be around the area for Monday morning, and despite starting the day off around freezing, windy conditions the next three days should be enough to dry the roads off and icing not being a major problem.  Light snow showers as we head into Monday night and Tuesday.  Right now we are looking at about 1-1.5 inches of snow, so not enough for any major problems, but enough to make the roads a little slick and also turn things white again. 

What really will be interesting is the system on Thursday and Friday.  The system's track will determine if we see rain or snow.  This system will have a lot of moisture with it and could cause some major problems for some parts of the plains and Midwest.... I will keep you posted on it, but right now the models cant make up their mind yet, one models shows it tracking right over us giving us a lot of rain with a little snow, the next model shows it tracking south of us, giving us a modest accumulation of snow.... Once it settles down and gets a little closer, it will be more certain.  Have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Are you feeling lucky?

So yesterday I was a photog for Seth Bauguess and it was quite an interesting little trip.  We had a few technical difficulties so we had to slightly alter our plans a hair, and as it turned out, they were for the better.  We were assigned one story for the day, and then by the time we returned to the station we had about three new stories on top of it. Had we not have had the technical difficulties to begin with, it would have altered our schedule, and the news wouldnt have fallen into our laps.... Seth wanted to buy a lottery ticket, but I am not a betting man.... Figured I would use my luck on a safe commute home.

So it looks like a warm weekend around the Miami Valley.  Temperatures will try to break the 50 degree mark on Saturday and Sunday.  Saturday will be mostly cloudy, possibly getting a little sunshine, but a decent amount of clouds will be around.  Then on Sunday it will be windy and also rainy.  So if you have any outdoor plans or want to go out for a walk, Saturday is the day to take advantage of the warm temps.  The rain comes in on Sunday and then on the backside of that system temperatures will fall back down with highs near the freezing mark.  We also have a chance to see a little snow next week, right now not looking like a lot, but we could see enough to turn things white.  I will keep you update in the coming days.  Jeff Booth is off tonight and I will be filling in for him, doing the weather all weekend, then also filling in for Mike Terwilleger on Monday morning.  Have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Wind energy anyone?

Hope everyone is enjoying the thaw we are seeing.... personally, if its going to thaw, at least lets make it the 60's!  Maybe that's just me, but 33 or 34 degrees just isn't my idea of a decent thaw.  Anyways, you might have "caught the wind" that next week it is Where You Live: Sidney, and if you have read many of my blog entries, you obviously know its always Where I Live!  I hope you will enjoy it, and as a matter of fact, I did a special story, where I drive around and give you a look at the Sidney high points, should be fun!

I don't know if have mentioned it on here, but behind Christmas, my favorite hobby or ambition of mine is wind energy.  I obviously love the weather, and a huge "Go Green" person when it comes to finding new energies and harnessing them.  Well the idea of wind and energy is enough to spark my interest three fold!  So yesterday I went to Union City where the school and community each purchased their own wind turbines.  Here is the link to the video. It is the first place in the country that both the school and community joined efforts.  Round of applause for you guys!!  It was a blast to be there and to actually see one of the motors being mounted... I had a 2009 calendar of wind turbines actually.... yea I know, weather geek.

Update on the weather, could see a few light showers this afternoon, maybe even a little freezing drizzle tonight as temps fall below freezing, but better shot at rain tomorrow PM.  Things warm up in to the 40's for the weekend, then cold air returns with the chance for snow for next week.  Have a good one!!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Christmas lights come at a price.

So I seriously did not expect to get an electric bill as large as I have the last two months.  I am not going to reveal the actual number, but it was more than double our normal bills the last two months, and since we have a gas heater and hot water heater, all Dawn and I can figure is that it was the Christmas lights.

It's not like I left our lights on a long time either, we started lighting them on a nightly basis about a week before Thanksgiving and then took them down the day after Christmas and were only on for about 5 hours at night.  I could see maybe an extra $20, but its much more than that.... Oh well...  Maybe next year I will invest in solar panels.  I guess I can thank Dawn too for not letting me put up the number of lights I really want to put up..... Our bill would be more than the bill to light the Las Vegas strip.

Also I was reminded last night of an old friend I used to work with.  He always used to tell me: "Smile, people will wonder what you are up to."  I was a bit smiley yesterday and sure enough, it never fails, and I wasn't even trying to look mischievous.  Anyways, just thought I would pass that along...

Quick look at the forecast, chance for more fog tonight with rain arriving Sunday morning.  Light scattered showers for much of the day tomorrow, we could see a little freezing rain in spots, mainly isolated spots, on the leading and tail edge of the rain, mainly North where it will be colder.  Most of the precip however will mainly stay to the South and especially the East as the system rides up the East Coast.  More rain will arrive on Tuesday and possibly a few flurries on the backside for Wednesday as cold temperatures return to the area.  Have a good one!!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Hello from the cubby-hole!

I join you tonight from the dark corners of the photographers cubby-hole, since I am a photog today and have to keep up-to-date on work emails, thought I would check them and drop a line to my readers, you!  Today I am working with Regina and shooting the top news of the day.  Yesterday, I didn't get the companionship of another person to do the news with since I was solo and doing two stories to the north in St. Henry and Russia on their connections to Haiti.  It is just such a shame what happened down there and your heart really goes out to those devastated by the earthquake.

We got a few systems the next few days that could cause some problems on the roadways.  Friday morning, tomorrow, we have a weak cold front swinging in with very little moisture. If we happen to see anything tomorrow morning it will be freezing drizzle and be in isolated locations, mainly north of Dayton.  Keep an eye out on the road conditions and take some extra time.  Then on Sunday another system will be swinging by to our east and we may be able to get a few flurries or sprinkles, mainly east of Dayton.  This again looks to be light over our area, so basically remaining pretty quiet for the next few days.  Warmer temps will help melt the ice and snow, but refreeze at night, so its a good idea to get the driveway cleared off as best as possible in the afternoon while its melting to avoid an icy driveway.  Anyways, enjoy the warmer temps and have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Here comes the sun!

Get your sunglasses!!  The snow and sunshine will be causing a lot of retina strain the next few days, so better to avoid the headache early and make sure you have a pair of sunglasses handy.  With the sunshine, we will see things slowly start to warm up as well, which is a good and bad thing.  The roads that still remain snow covered, like mine, will finally reveal pavement again, but at night when we drop below freezing, it will ice back over until it is all thawed and dry. So keep that in mind the next few days, black ice will be visiting us again.

Another thing that will help the melting will be light rain showers for the end of the week and the weekend.  Right now things look to be very light, but will still help the melting, and additionally will give more moisture to re-freeze at night, so another positive right along with the negative.  BUT!!  We will see 40 degrees, if not this week, next week for sure.  As a matter of fact, it looks like things will remain on the "warm" side until around the last week of January before another strong arctic system plows back into the area.  So enjoy it while it is warm!!

Have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

More Snow for Monday

Hope you all enjoyed the Winter Wonderland outside this morning.  I think the best part of it all was that it was nice an pretty on the trees, and you didn't have to worry about shoveling it or dealing with a few inches of it on the roads.  Well we saw all of the crystals on the trees because the temperatures fell to the same as the dew point last night forming fog in the light wind and calm conditions.  With the temperatures so cold, it formed ice crystals, so with what little breezy we did see, it caused it to accumulate on the tree limbs and such.

Tonight we will see the winds starting to pick up out of the southwest, which will keep us warmer tonight, but wind chills will be near zero again.  Tomorrow snow returns for the morning and afternoon, but it should be pretty light.  Accumulations look to be between half an inch and one inch.  A few locations could see slightly more than an inch, but I think most of us will be slightly under that one inch reading.  Either way take it easy on the roadways and have a good one!!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Left with a Winter Wonderland

Well it is about two weeks late for a White Christmas but Old Man Winter's watch must have ran out of battery life....  A lot of schools finally got to start tapping into their allotted snow days, which makes the kids and teachers happy, and parents are left with the chore of deciding what to do with the kids at home; whether that be staying home, calling a babysitter, grandma, or another relative. 

I had a busy day yesterday, I started off the day in Richmond monitoring the snow moving in.  Then I had a brief break before returning to Dayton for road conditions for the dinner time shows, then for the late shows I rode around in an ODOT snow plow.  It was a lot of fun, and afterwards I was kinda left in amazement.  We assume that they have to get the roads clean, but if you think about it, it is an amazing service.  We all pay taxes, and as soon as the first flakes start to fall, these guys and gals, are out there getting things as clean as fast as possible in order to keep the flow of traffic in order.  It was just kinda cool to actually see where are tax money is going.

Well now that the snow has came we got more things to worry about, winds and temperatures. Today's winds will be about 10-15 mph, which will cause some minor drifting on the rural roads, but winds will calm down a little until late Sunday.  With the fresh snow pack, we are expecting temperatures to dip into the single digits the next few mornings, with wind chills near or below zero.  One thing to keep an eye on is the clouds.  If we see any clearing during the next few nights, temperatures will easily dip below zero. Keep that in mind if you park your car outside.  Sunday night and Monday winds will begin to pick back up from 10-15 mph and we will see wind chills below zero, so remember that as the kids head back to school or you head back to work on Monday morning.

There is one "bright spot" in the next 7 days, we may be able to reach the freezing temp, although the snow may have other plans.  The snow acts like ice cubes in a drink and likes to keep us much colder, but as of right now we may hit 32, or at least come close the middle and end of next week.  After all of these wind chills below zero, I think 30's will sound like a heat wave, ehhh?

Haha, have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Snow is knocking our our Door!!!

No time to talk long this morning, typing this in between each fruity pebbles spoonful.  Snow is approaching Richmond, and that is my first place of business.

The models are still showing snow still being the heaviest from around noon until nightfall today.  Be sure to keep it tuned to ABC 22 and FOX 45 for team coverage throughout the day today.  Drive safe and have a good one!!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Afternoon forecast update...

The recent afternoon models have come out and I think that our area could see slightly more than first anticipated.  My thoughts on the forecast totals will be around 3-5" by Friday morning.  About 2-4" by Thursday night and then an additional inch overnight as long as we are in the lake effect band.  We will be seeing a very high snow to rain ratio, meaning the colder and drier the air is, the more fluffier the snow will be and it will not pack very easily.  This means more air pockets will be in between the snow flakes and it wont compress as it would if we were closer to the freezing level.  Scientifically, instead of the common 10 inches of snow to one inch of water, it may be closer to 15 inches of snow to once inch of water.  Our predicted liquid precip through Friday morning is about 0.29, and if that holds true and we see the 15-1 ratio, we could be seeing about 4 inches.

The latest trends on the models are showing the heaviest snow from around 11 AM until 4 PM.  Road crews may have an extra challenge on keeping up with the falling snow during these hours.

Now obviously some areas will be in the lighter bands of snow and not see the full amount others will, so keep in mind 3-5" does not mean you will see the 5", you may only see the 3" and other areas seeing the heavier snow will be seeing the 5".  Winds will not be as strong Thursday as what they will be Friday, where blowing and drifting snow will be a big problem.

Make sure to keep Dayton's News Source, ABC 22 and FOX 45, on all day tomorrow for all the latest.  Travel safe, keep warm, and as always: Have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Wednesday AM update on Thursdays's Snow

I will be updating this later today after looking at new and up to date data, but many people are wondering some basic questions, When, How Much, and Will There Be School?

When-As of the latest data, it looks to start as a light snow between 7 AM and 10 AM, Thursday.  It will start in the western counties around 7 AM and work its way westward and should arrive in the eastern counties around 10 AM.  The snow will linger through the day and be pretty persistent and start tapering down in the evening, with flurries remaining for Friday.

How Much-The snow will start out light and constant, and become fairly heavy especially in the afternoon.  Within about 12-15 hours we will be dumped on, and with it coming within a short amount of time, it may cause a problem for road crews. Once all is said and done, I think about 2-4 inches by Midnight Thursday night. With us being as cold as we are, the snow to liquid ratio is higher than if we were warmer, so I think we may be a bit closer to the higher end of the 2-4, although some locations may still see that 2 inch reading on the ruler. With that said, some locations could be seeing a tad more than the expected snowfall totals, it just depends on where the heavier bands of snow seem to ride.

Will There Be School-Well a few schools may choose to delay school tomorrow to see how things shape up, but with a decent amount of snow in the afternoon, I wouldn't be surprised if some schools decide to have an earlier dismissal, so having a plan for your kids would be a good idea in case they are sent home before you expect.  With winds 10-20 mph on Friday, drifing snow will be a very real problem.  Depending on how the road crews tackle this problem, some schools may be off Friday as well.  Keep it locked to ABC22 and FOX45 because Dayton's News Source will updates all morning tomorrow, including the only local newscasts from 7-9 AM. 

On the backside, get ready for VERY VERY cold temperatures!  Especially in the morning, low temperatures in the single digits.

Unrelated to the upcoming storm, but a little tidbit: I know it has been pretty cold and nasty the last few days, but I did keep warm pretty nicely yesterday in Darke County.  I went home and helped my dad get more hay for our livestock.  I have a truck and help them move the hay, and its always fun to see how many bales of hay we can stack on it.  Yesterday we only did 31 bales at once just because we didnt want to overload on one trip and then come back and get a few remaining ones... I still think we could have done more, but my dad and brother said we would just come back...  Anyways, despite the fact that it was 19 degrees the entire time, when you are out on the farm doing work, it isnt hard to keep warm.... Have a good one, and get ready with your snow shovels!!  I will post an update later this afternoon.

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

More Snow on the Way!!

Thursday could be interesting here in the Miami Valley.  Models have been pretty consistent and are showing a few inches around the area.  Snow should start picking up in the morning hours and then start to taper off by the evening, so the snow could be coming down at a pretty good pace through the day.  Plus we are looking to be pretty windy on Friday, so get ready for drifting snow. 

Speaking of drifting snow, every time I shovel my driveway, it just drifts back over.  Now that I do a lot of traveling on a daily basis, it is quite impressive how much more snow we have an hour north of Dayton.  Most of it is due to the warmer temperatures they saw a few weeks ago, all of the snow melted in Dayton, but stayed on the ground up here in Shelby County.  The side of my driveway has a two foot pile of snow along it from all the shoveling.  My hopes are that I can get it to get a few more feet higher for a huge drift and then I can dig tunnels through it like my dad used to do with me back in Darke County as a kid.  Goodtimes.  Well I am off to help my father pick up some more hay for the livestock before the snow arrives, have a good one!!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Cold tonight, snow tomorrow

Looks like another cold night tonight, although not quite as cold last night where many locations around the area dropped to only a few degrees above zero.  My weather station at home dropped to a wind chill of -17.  YIKES!!!  Glad I was under a few extra blankets!  Tonight it appears we will fall into the lower teens and hold steady with clouds building into the area and helping to keep us stable as far as the temps are concerned.  Strong winds out of the Northwest from 10-15 mph will make things feel closer to zero, if not below at times, so bundle up!!

Snow will start developing overnight in the Northern Miami Valley and slowly work their way southward as we head towards and through the morning. Snow showers will be a little more widespread and numerous tomorrow afternoon.  The computer models are showing about 1.5 inches to the far northern reaches of the Valley, and up to an inch for the southern part of the Valley.  Another decent shot of snow looking to arrive late Thursday and Friday.... I will keep you posted on that... Have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Nothing sounds good to eat....

Do you ever just get tired of eating the same old stuff????  I was going to try and be a little healthier, and get a Meijer sub and eat it dry.  I don't know if they stopped making them or they were sold out, but no dice.  So I was like, oh well and just bought my trail mix and Extra gum for my oral fixation.  I was figuring it would be my excuse to get some fast food on the way home, but every fast food restaurant I passed just didn't sound good.  Now I know there wasn't a whole lot of them, but the eight or so I passed, all sounded bad....  So I came back to the station and have been eating the trail mix.... I need to call Elaine from Seinfeld and ask her where I can get a "Big Salad" at around here.  I just want something healthy.  Then I called Dawn and we talked about how its so easy to eat unhealthily.  I mean think about it... To go to a restaurant and get a "healthy salad" it would be like 6-9 bucks.  And its just as easy to roll up to a restaurant and get a hamburger for a dollar.... Now I would have got a head of lettuce or something for here at the station, but its not like I have a kitchen to cut it up or anything.... So it looks like I will be a bit on the hungry side for the rest of the night, which I guess is better than gorging myself full of greasy unnecessary food...  Maybe it has something to do with the cold temperatures. We only hit a high of 19 today.... Maybe Monday and Tuesday I will try to catch a flight to the island on LOST.  Maybe Jin could make me some awesome sushi.  Anyways, I am out, take care everyone, bundle up, and have a good one!!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael