Sunday, February 28, 2010
Cold, Snowy February
Well this month will be one for the record books. This month's snowfall, set at the Dayton Int'l Airport, was 23.0". This is the second snowiest February on record, the first place was set in 2010 with 31.6". Not only have we see a snowy February, but a cold one as well. It wasn't super cold, as a matter of fact we only dropped to -2 degrees on the 8th for the coldest temperature. The warmest was 42 degrees on the 21st, but once you compile all of the temperatures we were at 24.4 degrees for the monthly average, which is 5.8 degrees BELOW the average. So if your electric bill has been slightly more than years past, there is a reason for that.
This week high temps will be above freezing, but will fall below freezing at night, so refreezing of untreated pavement will cause icy spots this week. The good news is that we will not be seeing a lot of snow in the near future, just flurries. The east coast system looks to be out of our hair for Tuesday and Wednesday and, at most, we will see a light dusting. Warmer temperatures on the way for the rest of the week and some sunshine as well, but another wintry mix possible next weekend. Have a good one!
Best,
Andrew Buck Michael
Saturday, February 27, 2010
Things quieting down for now.
A few flurries or a light snow shower here or there for Saturday night and Sunday, but a dusting should be all we would see, and most of the area to the far west and south will remain dry. Our next "decent" shot of snow will be Tuesday into Wednesday. Right now only looking like about an inch. There is another storm system looking to push up the east coast and the Appalachian Mountains will keep most of the moisture from getting into our area, but we could see some light snow on the back side of that.
Sunshine returns for a few days later next week into next weekend, but temperatures having a hard time to even reach the 40 degree mark.... maybe by Saturday we might break the bubble once again... I just wish it was the 60 degree mark we were breaking. Well getting ready for the newscast, have a good one!
Best,
Andrew Buck Michael
Sunshine returns for a few days later next week into next weekend, but temperatures having a hard time to even reach the 40 degree mark.... maybe by Saturday we might break the bubble once again... I just wish it was the 60 degree mark we were breaking. Well getting ready for the newscast, have a good one!
Best,
Andrew Buck Michael
Friday, February 26, 2010
Slippery Morning, More To Follow
Well it looks like a lot of the Miami Valley seemed a little over confident with the snow, or as Seth Bauguess would say, Snow-ver-confident. Lots of accidents the last 48 hours, and weather is part of the problem, the main part is that we have see the 5+ inch storms and people think that the 1-2" is nothing. However, with the 1-2" and warm pavement, we get a lot of black ice when night falls and people can't see it and need to use extra caution.... more caution than when we had the 5+" of snow on the roads....
So a look at the forecast..... Strong winds will persist through the next 24-36 hours so blowing and drifting snow will continue to cause problems. The Noreaster that is pounding the East Coast will have some moisture push back towards the Miami Valley. The northeastern part of the area will see the most moisture, maybe 2-4", and the farther South and West you travel, lower accumulations can be expected, 1-3". This is all through midday on Saturday. We still stand to see light snow and flurries through late Saturday and Sunday, but it will continue to lighten up and new accumulations will be at or less than an inch.
Another storm system looks to hug the Appalachian Mountains next Monday and Tuesday. Right now we stand to see just a couple of inches, but if the track of the storm changes, we could see another sizable snowfall. I will keep you posted. Travel safe and have a good one!
Best,
Andrew Buck Michael
Wednesday, February 24, 2010
Maybe a few inches for Fri-Sat....
I wouldn't hold your breath (because that's a long time to hold your breath), but the latest models have a VERY strong Noreaster across parts of New England the next couple of days and has it progressing "backwards" from east to west and shows us getting about 1-3" from Friday afternoon into Saturday. Will keep a close eye on it to see if the models tend to keep in agreement with its retrogression. Now lets take a step back to current times....
We are still on tap to get about an inch or slightly more in some spots through Thursday morning. Nothing major compared to what we have seen the last few weeks, but could see some slick spots. Winds will pick up especially for Thursday PM into Friday AM. With the little amounts of new snow, drifting will not be a major problem, despite the strong winds... Have a good one!
Best,
Andrew Buck Michael
We are still on tap to get about an inch or slightly more in some spots through Thursday morning. Nothing major compared to what we have seen the last few weeks, but could see some slick spots. Winds will pick up especially for Thursday PM into Friday AM. With the little amounts of new snow, drifting will not be a major problem, despite the strong winds... Have a good one!
Best,
Andrew Buck Michael
Tuesday, February 23, 2010
Quiet Week ahead...
Checking back in after a short break.... My home computer had some problem and had to wipe it clean and start fresh... Three virus scans found nothing and still a little perplexed by it all, but at least it is running like new now...
It looks like the next week or so will be pretty quiet. We could pick up an inch or so Wednesday night with a week disturbance, and some light lake effect snow through the end of the week, but no major storm systems on the way for a while. We will, however, remain pretty chilly with high temperatures below or near freezing for the next week.
The rain the last few days was a welcome site, I love the snow but the tease of spring with rain was a welcoming feeling. I am excited for spring to arrive along with severe weather season. I am also looking forward to starting the garden. I hope to have a lot of great vegetables and make some super spicy salsa when everything ripens up. If it isn't hot, it isn't great, haha. Have a good one!
Best,
Andrew Buck Michael
Sunday, February 21, 2010
Still holding its course
The track of the storm is still holding steady, and means we may have dodged a bullet or even more snow.... some people may be happy or sad with that....
Still watching the chance for rain for part of the Miami Valley today,slight chance a few locations would be cool enough to support freezing rain, but not likely with temperatures about 34 across the area currently, and will continue to warm up. Tonight as temperatures drop, we could see a little icing/rain to the far north, which will melt pretty quickly as rain moves in early tomorrow. Tomorrow seeing rain through the day switching to wintry mix/flurries on the backside of the cold front and then light lake effect snow for the week, still only looking like a couple inches, at best, as we head through mid week.
Best,
Andrew Buck Michael
Saturday, February 20, 2010
Tracking the Storm
So here is the current track of the coming storm. Low pressure looks like it is going to take a path that will take it over Mercer, Auglaize, and Logan Counties on late Monday. Before it arrives,tomorrow, we will see a chance for a few flurries mixed with a little rain, mainly later in the day, and this should be pretty light. By Monday morning we will see the rain/snow mix pick up and starts witching over to all rain for most of the area. The northern counties that will be close to the track of the low, and will be cooler, and will have the chance to see freezing rain mixed with the rain through the day on Monday. The central and southern portions of the Miami Valley will stay all rain through the day on Monday. By Monday night the cold front will swing through dropping our overnight temperatures back below freezing and we could see a light accumulation of snow on the back side, around 1 inch or so.
With all of the rain, around half an inch or so, along with warm temperatures(near 40 for Sunday and Monday), we will need to watch for flooding. With more rain it could be a serious problem, but with the rain being on the "lighter" side it will not be as pronounced as it could be... Hopefully everyone has cleared out their storm drains to allow the water to go somewhere rather than pooling up.
Best,
Andrew Buck Michael
Friday, February 19, 2010
Taking a Northern Route
Well as I mentioned a few entries ago, these clippers normally pull more north than the models originally show 6 or 7 days out.... The models have settled down a little, with the track of the low going through the northern Miami Valley, and according to the most recent data we may be seeing some icing. Right now we could see a brief snow shower or two before switching back over to rain Sunday night. With the snow on the ground though the temperatures near the surface could linger below freezing while the temperatures slightly above the surface will be warmer and support liquid rain.... That means freezing rain/rain could be a problem. To better understand the difference take a look at the blog entry on here from 12/03/09, which is complete with diagrams. The temperatures on Monday should get above freezing during the day and this will help melt the ice that may fall.
Again, the track of the system is still a little uncertain and if the track changes at all, I will be back on here to help pinpoint its new track and what kind of precip will be falling with that track.
Best,
Andrew Buck Michael
Thursday, February 18, 2010
Lots of Uncertainty
Well the last 24 hours of models still have not pinned the track of the Low pressure for Sunday night into Monday morning. A handful of the models show the low tracking through central Kentucky leaving us with only a couple inches of snow. A few models show the low tracking between Dayton and Lima, and giving us rain before switching back over to snow. With that said, there are still a few others that have the low tracking around the Cincinnati area, which would dump over half a foot easily across parts of the Miami Valley.... It is too early to say without question what we will see, however, if you average them out and take the average centralized route, we could be in for another pretty hefty snowfall... I hope the models start to agree more through the next 12-24 hours to help finalize a forecast. I will keep things up-to-date on here as things continue getting closer.
Best,
Andrew Buck Michael
Best,
Andrew Buck Michael
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
A look ahead
Well the models are starting to settle down and starting to agree for the most part on the track and timing for the next system. It looks like Saturday AM we could see a snow shower or two, but accumulations will be pretty light... Then a brief break of high pressure on Saturday PM and Sunday AM.
The real impressive system then tracks just to our south on recent models, basically along the Ohio River. This means another shot of a decent accumulations because anything North of the low will be snow and anything South of the low will be rain. As great as rain sounds right now instead of snow, we really do not want rain with this snow.... flooding is going to be a major problem when this starts melting and rain would only flash-melt a lot of the snow we currently have, not to mention the ground is still frozen and not going to be absorbing much, if any, liquid until its warmed up a little bit. Anyways the snow looks to start late Sunday night and provide quite a quick punch of snow Monday morning. Although I expect the models to move around a little more and these numbers can chance, the most recent data shows the potential for another 4-6+" of snow..... I will keep things up-to-date on here and keep you posted in the coming days, until then, have a good one.
Best,
Andrew Buck Michael
The real impressive system then tracks just to our south on recent models, basically along the Ohio River. This means another shot of a decent accumulations because anything North of the low will be snow and anything South of the low will be rain. As great as rain sounds right now instead of snow, we really do not want rain with this snow.... flooding is going to be a major problem when this starts melting and rain would only flash-melt a lot of the snow we currently have, not to mention the ground is still frozen and not going to be absorbing much, if any, liquid until its warmed up a little bit. Anyways the snow looks to start late Sunday night and provide quite a quick punch of snow Monday morning. Although I expect the models to move around a little more and these numbers can chance, the most recent data shows the potential for another 4-6+" of snow..... I will keep things up-to-date on here and keep you posted in the coming days, until then, have a good one.
Best,
Andrew Buck Michael
Tuesday, February 16, 2010
Long Day, Little Sleep
Well getting a little fatigued.... Was out reporting all morning long in Shelby, Miami, and Darke Counties, hopefully you caught a few of the reports.... there were a few funny ones... Anyways, the winds are keeping things pretty nasty and I will be in Darke for the ABC@6 and FOX@6:30 talking about the level 2 and also having a little fun in the snow, don't miss it....
Winds will taper off a little tonight slowly and so will the lake effect snow... it will turn to lighter flurries instead. This weekends storm looks to be interesting.... the models are disagreeing a lot on the track of the low.... I think a chance for snow on Saturday is still on tap... BUT it might be a little interesting, I will be back on tomorrow to hopefully pin the tail on the system. Time for a quick nap, before more reporting! Have a good one!
Best,
Andrew Buck Michael
Winds will taper off a little tonight slowly and so will the lake effect snow... it will turn to lighter flurries instead. This weekends storm looks to be interesting.... the models are disagreeing a lot on the track of the low.... I think a chance for snow on Saturday is still on tap... BUT it might be a little interesting, I will be back on tomorrow to hopefully pin the tail on the system. Time for a quick nap, before more reporting! Have a good one!
Best,
Andrew Buck Michael
Monday, February 15, 2010
Today's Snow: Good and Bad
So I don't know how many of you have shoveled the snow yet, but it is VERY fluffy and light. The good news is that it wont be as hard to shovel as the past snows, but the bad news is with winds picking up to 10-20 mph and gusts close to 30 mph, we are going to see this snow blow and drift MUCH easier than the last couple of snows. The reason is that the temperatures have remained in the mid to lower twenties for this snow, where the previous snows have been closer to 30 degrees.
We could still see about another 2-4 inches between now, 5:00 PM and tomorrow afternoon, so the snow isn't over just yet, although it will start to lighten up and become a little more scattered. So with about 6-8 inches of this fluffy snow, I expect a lot of problems for commuters, especially in the rural areas.
Wednesday and Thursday a few lingering flurries, or light lake effect snow, but not a lot in the form of accumulation. A look ahead at the next clipper system swinging down for next weekend has it tracking through the middle of Kentucky as of the latest models, as time nears, these systems, about 95% of the time, tend to pull more northerly so we will need to keep another close eye on this system in case it trends the same as many clippers.
Best,
Andrew Buck Michael
We could still see about another 2-4 inches between now, 5:00 PM and tomorrow afternoon, so the snow isn't over just yet, although it will start to lighten up and become a little more scattered. So with about 6-8 inches of this fluffy snow, I expect a lot of problems for commuters, especially in the rural areas.
Wednesday and Thursday a few lingering flurries, or light lake effect snow, but not a lot in the form of accumulation. A look ahead at the next clipper system swinging down for next weekend has it tracking through the middle of Kentucky as of the latest models, as time nears, these systems, about 95% of the time, tend to pull more northerly so we will need to keep another close eye on this system in case it trends the same as many clippers.
Best,
Andrew Buck Michael
Sunday, February 14, 2010
Breakdown for the coming snow....
So here is the synopsis.... This is a clipper system that swings from western Canada and swings south towards the great lakes then pulls back northward quickly after its dip..... Now with about 95% of these systems the models show it diving deeper south than its actual track. The system has had the majority of the snow and the low tracking over the Cincinnati area. As expected the newer models are slowly pulling it slightly more North as its arrival nears. With that said here are my thoughts on snow fall totals....
I believe that the heaviest of the precip will be falling over the central and southern parts of the Miami Valley, basically along or near the I 70 corridor. This region will see about 4-8+" of snow by early Tuesday morning.... The "+" is again for the isolated spots that will see more than the 8 inches. The far North and the far South will see slightly less.
On Tuesday we stand to see about another 1-2" due to remaining snow showers and a decent fetch, or wind blowing off of Lake Michigan, as lake effect snow. A few flurries for Wednesday and Thursday, but shouldn't be amounting to a whole lot....
Grab our breathes on Friday, then another system is in the making for Saturday.... Yesterday I was wondering if people would get more upset with me if I lied and said it was going to be 70 this week and sunny, or tell the truth and say its going to be below freezing and snowy.... what do you think?
Best,
Andrew Buck Michael
I believe that the heaviest of the precip will be falling over the central and southern parts of the Miami Valley, basically along or near the I 70 corridor. This region will see about 4-8+" of snow by early Tuesday morning.... The "+" is again for the isolated spots that will see more than the 8 inches. The far North and the far South will see slightly less.
On Tuesday we stand to see about another 1-2" due to remaining snow showers and a decent fetch, or wind blowing off of Lake Michigan, as lake effect snow. A few flurries for Wednesday and Thursday, but shouldn't be amounting to a whole lot....
Grab our breathes on Friday, then another system is in the making for Saturday.... Yesterday I was wondering if people would get more upset with me if I lied and said it was going to be 70 this week and sunny, or tell the truth and say its going to be below freezing and snowy.... what do you think?
Best,
Andrew Buck Michael
More snow...
Well now Wayne, Union, Montgomery, Clark, Champaign, Greene, Preble, Miami, Butler, Warren, and Clinton Counties are under the Winter Storm Watch. 4-8+" will be expected for these counties. For counties not listed and farther to the north, you can expect about 2-6".... The farther north you get from I-70 and also west from I-75 the less you will see..... Just wanted to post this pretty fast.... Will dive deeper into things this afternoon.
Best,
Andrew Buck Michael
Best,
Andrew Buck Michael
Saturday, February 13, 2010
New models showing more snow....
Some of the most recent models are showing more snow than the last few days for the system arriving early Monday AM through Tuesday. I will keep you posted, but right now I wouldn't be surprised with 4-7" to the South and maybe 2-5" for north of I-70, I will keep everyone posted on here as new models come out.....
Best,
Andrew Buck Michael
Winter Blues... Football is over
Well now that the Superbowl is over.... it seems like all great sports are ending, but then I forgot about Curling in the Olympics.... which will be enough of a distraction until March Madness rolls around.... I just hate it when football is over....
The forecast actually is calling for a decent amount of snow for part of the area.... well, kinda. The storm system I mentioned swinging by the southern part of the Miami Valley has warranted a Winter Storm Watch for Sunday night thru Monday night for Butler, Warren, and Clinton Counties. The FAR southern and southeastern parts of the area could see about 3-5", and as you travel to the North, it will cut back pretty fast. Dayton may only see about 1-2", and North of I-70 will see around an inch or so by Tuesday morning. We do stand to see a few lake effect snow showers for the middle part of the week, and most of that will stay to the northern parts of the Miami Valley, and will be slowly dropping a light accumulation. The far North could see about a total of 1-2" for Tuesday through Thursday, so not much compared to what we already are seeing. Still looking cold for quite a while, so snow isn't going anywhere.
ALSO!!! We finally got approval from the Canadian version of our FCC, and we now have quadrupled our digital signal strength, which will help some people that are farther away from the Dayton Metro area. So if you had problems getting us on a TV that isn't connected to cable, like the kitchen or some of the bedrooms, you should be able to get us now, just make sure to rescan your channels. Have a good one!
Best,
Andrew Buck Michael
The forecast actually is calling for a decent amount of snow for part of the area.... well, kinda. The storm system I mentioned swinging by the southern part of the Miami Valley has warranted a Winter Storm Watch for Sunday night thru Monday night for Butler, Warren, and Clinton Counties. The FAR southern and southeastern parts of the area could see about 3-5", and as you travel to the North, it will cut back pretty fast. Dayton may only see about 1-2", and North of I-70 will see around an inch or so by Tuesday morning. We do stand to see a few lake effect snow showers for the middle part of the week, and most of that will stay to the northern parts of the Miami Valley, and will be slowly dropping a light accumulation. The far North could see about a total of 1-2" for Tuesday through Thursday, so not much compared to what we already are seeing. Still looking cold for quite a while, so snow isn't going anywhere.
ALSO!!! We finally got approval from the Canadian version of our FCC, and we now have quadrupled our digital signal strength, which will help some people that are farther away from the Dayton Metro area. So if you had problems getting us on a TV that isn't connected to cable, like the kitchen or some of the bedrooms, you should be able to get us now, just make sure to rescan your channels. Have a good one!
Best,
Andrew Buck Michael
Thursday, February 11, 2010
Catching some rest....
Well, after about three days of getting less than three hours of sleep at a time, here and there, it finally feels great to get a 4 hour nap..... normally my "weekend" is Monday and Tuesday, but this winter storm had other plans.
It appears we will continue to entertain the thought of a light dusting/flurries for Saturday, then Sunday night into Monday a clipper system will swing down, pretty far South, from Canada, and the southern part of the area could see a couple of inches, while the farther North you go, the less you will see.. Tuesday we all will see a chance for an inch or so, but nothing major in our near future to compare to what we have already seen. Winds very light the next several days and picking up to 10-15 mph Monday PM-Wednesday AM.... so the winds lighter than what we have already seen as well. So that is all good news.... the bad news: it doesn't look like we will be above freezing for quite a while, at least a week if not longer. Hope you like the snow, cuz it isn't going anywhere anytime soon.... the good news, if we all lose power at least we got snow to boil for water... haha, have a good one!
Best,
Andrew Buck Michael
It appears we will continue to entertain the thought of a light dusting/flurries for Saturday, then Sunday night into Monday a clipper system will swing down, pretty far South, from Canada, and the southern part of the area could see a couple of inches, while the farther North you go, the less you will see.. Tuesday we all will see a chance for an inch or so, but nothing major in our near future to compare to what we have already seen. Winds very light the next several days and picking up to 10-15 mph Monday PM-Wednesday AM.... so the winds lighter than what we have already seen as well. So that is all good news.... the bad news: it doesn't look like we will be above freezing for quite a while, at least a week if not longer. Hope you like the snow, cuz it isn't going anywhere anytime soon.... the good news, if we all lose power at least we got snow to boil for water... haha, have a good one!
Best,
Andrew Buck Michael
Wednesday, February 10, 2010
More Snow on the Way....
And you were thinking it was over.... haha....
Well to kind of recap before getting to the forecast.... I have been all over the place the last few days.... and here is my breakdown... finally got mail today, first time in 4 days. Also a first today, its the first time our street was fully plowed here in Sidney(thumbs up).... While I was traveling around, I will say that for a small community, Covington has one of the best street crews out there.... Even with all of the mess I had to deal with on Saturday morning (which was worse than the recent days, in my opinion), Covington was on top of things and kept the streets clean and top notch.... Not that others didn't, but they barely let a flake hit the ground. Also, people drive too fast.... there are some people, that if they started to fishtail, I have no doubt they would be in the ditch because they are flying on the roads....
But to get back to the forecast, we have another shot of snow in our near future... We could see a few light lake effect snow showers in the next two or three days, but only expecting a dusting at best.... not expecting any accumulations.... BUT as we head into Sunday and Monday a clipper system will swing down from Canada. Right now it will be lacking moisture, and should bring only a couple of inches, if that.... And on another good note, we will be seeing very light winds for the next several days....
HOWEVER!! With the fresh snow-pack, and the skies clearing up a bit, as we head through the next several days, if we have clear skies at night, temperatures will plummet to near zero, if not below in some places, possibly seeing a little freezing fog if temperatures fall far enough.... Keep that in mind and make sure your vehicle is ready for cold temps.
Have a good one!
Best,
Andrew Buck Michael
Well to kind of recap before getting to the forecast.... I have been all over the place the last few days.... and here is my breakdown... finally got mail today, first time in 4 days. Also a first today, its the first time our street was fully plowed here in Sidney(thumbs up).... While I was traveling around, I will say that for a small community, Covington has one of the best street crews out there.... Even with all of the mess I had to deal with on Saturday morning (which was worse than the recent days, in my opinion), Covington was on top of things and kept the streets clean and top notch.... Not that others didn't, but they barely let a flake hit the ground. Also, people drive too fast.... there are some people, that if they started to fishtail, I have no doubt they would be in the ditch because they are flying on the roads....
But to get back to the forecast, we have another shot of snow in our near future... We could see a few light lake effect snow showers in the next two or three days, but only expecting a dusting at best.... not expecting any accumulations.... BUT as we head into Sunday and Monday a clipper system will swing down from Canada. Right now it will be lacking moisture, and should bring only a couple of inches, if that.... And on another good note, we will be seeing very light winds for the next several days....
HOWEVER!! With the fresh snow-pack, and the skies clearing up a bit, as we head through the next several days, if we have clear skies at night, temperatures will plummet to near zero, if not below in some places, possibly seeing a little freezing fog if temperatures fall far enough.... Keep that in mind and make sure your vehicle is ready for cold temps.
Have a good one!
Best,
Andrew Buck Michael
Tuesday, February 9, 2010
Winds are picking up....
Winds are starting to pick up... I will be up an-at-'em at 1:30 AM to begin preparations for the morning weather hits.... rest easy everyone, and anyone with a LEVEL 3, I will DEFINITELY see you in the morning since you wont be working.... send the snowmobiles to your border to take me in without getting ticketed!! I wish I was kidding, but that would be an awesome story!! Send me a comment on here and I will be in touch...seriously!
Best,
Andrew Buck Michael
Mid-storm update...
Well the majority of the moderate snow has fallen across the area.... but its not over yet. While the majority of the snow has fallen, new issues will present themselves in the coming hours. We will still see a couple of inches of new snow by tomorrow evening, although it is going to be hard measuring it... we are already starting to see the winds switch from the East to the West and Northwest, and they will begin to get stronger and top out, tomorrow during the day, around 20-30 mph, with stronger gusts.
So on and off lighter snow and winds starting to pick up causing drifting. I have a great idea for an experiment for our dinner time shows.... Hopefully it works. Have a good one!
Best,
Andrew Buck Michael
Checking in from Minster
Snow is still falling, I have been all over the place this morning. I have done reports on the snow from Sidney, Versailles, Greenville, Ansonia, Celina, Wapakoneta, Botkins, New Bremen, and now Minster.... Forecast still stands at 6-10+ Enjoy the "light" winds while they last, drifting snow will be a huge problem tomorrow. Have a good one!
Best,
Andrew Buck Michael
Best,
Andrew Buck Michael
Heading out the door....
Getting ready for the snow and Round 2 is entering the area as I type this at 2:30 AM. The snow is moving in from the Southwest currently and will continue to push into the area through the morning. I still think 6-10+ for the Miami Valley, 6-8 for the southern half of the area and about 8-10+ for the northern half and especially the far northwest. Either way, when the winds pick up for tonight and Wednesday, measuring the new snow will be quite a task. I will keep in touch on here through parts of the day, and will be out in the elements for every newscast from now until told otherwise, so keep a cup of coffee brewing for me, I like my coffee black. Have a good one!
Best,
Andrew Buck Michael
Monday, February 8, 2010
Breakdown of the upcoming storm
So here is how everything is looking....
From the looks at the latest models, by tomorrow morning's commute, we could see about an inch or so on the ground, especially in the western counties, and the snow will pick-up through the morning hours. The snow will remain pretty constant and moderate through the afternoon and by about 7 PM we will have an additional 4-6 inches of new snow. As we go through the day we will warm temperatures into the lower 30's and the southern Miami Valley could see a little icing, which will cut their snowfall totals back a bit. The winds through the day tomorrow will be about 8-15 mph starting in the East, then to the North shortly, then back to the West. When the winds switch to the West, Tuesday early evening, that is when they will start picking up.
By Tuesday night and into Wednesday winds are expected to be about 20-30 mph at times, and gusts close to 40 mph all coming out of the WNW. Tuesday night into Wednesday we have a strong upper level disturbance that will help enhance the moisture in the air (snow) and we could easily see another 2-4 inches.
By the time things start wrapping up and calming down a little late Wednesday night we could see about an additional total of 6-10+ inches from this system. Most of the area will be in this range but the "+" will be for some spots that may see a little more snow with the enhanced upper level energy helping with their snowfall totals on Tuesday PM and Wednesday.
This on top of the snow we already have will cause a lot of drifting problems with the strong winds. Honestly, if I were you, don't even worry about shoveling or snow blowing the driveway, unless it is absolutely necessary, until later Wednesday..... the snow is going to drift it right back shut in a VERY short time.
Just so you know we are planning on having extended coverage, especially in the mornings the next few days, so keep it tuned to ABC 22 or FOX 45 for all the latest. I will be out doing more field reporting in the Northern Miami Valley, so I may be "Where You Live" I crack myself up... Until then, stock up on hot cocoa and soup, some of us might be stuck inside again for a day or two. Have a good one!
Best,
Andrew Buck Michael
From the looks at the latest models, by tomorrow morning's commute, we could see about an inch or so on the ground, especially in the western counties, and the snow will pick-up through the morning hours. The snow will remain pretty constant and moderate through the afternoon and by about 7 PM we will have an additional 4-6 inches of new snow. As we go through the day we will warm temperatures into the lower 30's and the southern Miami Valley could see a little icing, which will cut their snowfall totals back a bit. The winds through the day tomorrow will be about 8-15 mph starting in the East, then to the North shortly, then back to the West. When the winds switch to the West, Tuesday early evening, that is when they will start picking up.
By Tuesday night and into Wednesday winds are expected to be about 20-30 mph at times, and gusts close to 40 mph all coming out of the WNW. Tuesday night into Wednesday we have a strong upper level disturbance that will help enhance the moisture in the air (snow) and we could easily see another 2-4 inches.
By the time things start wrapping up and calming down a little late Wednesday night we could see about an additional total of 6-10+ inches from this system. Most of the area will be in this range but the "+" will be for some spots that may see a little more snow with the enhanced upper level energy helping with their snowfall totals on Tuesday PM and Wednesday.
This on top of the snow we already have will cause a lot of drifting problems with the strong winds. Honestly, if I were you, don't even worry about shoveling or snow blowing the driveway, unless it is absolutely necessary, until later Wednesday..... the snow is going to drift it right back shut in a VERY short time.
Just so you know we are planning on having extended coverage, especially in the mornings the next few days, so keep it tuned to ABC 22 or FOX 45 for all the latest. I will be out doing more field reporting in the Northern Miami Valley, so I may be "Where You Live" I crack myself up... Until then, stock up on hot cocoa and soup, some of us might be stuck inside again for a day or two. Have a good one!
Best,
Andrew Buck Michael
Sunday, February 7, 2010
Forecasted snowfall totals for "Round Two"
Polish the blades on your snow shovels, and get the snow blower repaired!
The next system has even more moving parts with it... I will cut to the chase and tell you I am calling for 6-10" as of right now. We will be seeing an enhanced snowfall with a LOT of upper level energy Tuesday PM through Wednesday. There may be a slight icing for the southern counties Tuesday PM cutting down on their snowfall totals. This is a very interesting system and the enhanced snowfall will be the deciding factor whether we end up closer to the 6" or the 10".
IMPORTANT!!! With all of the snow we have seen, we have filled in all the "holes" and open spots, so drifting will be a big problem as winds pick up Tuesday night into Wednesday night. Winds are still expected to be between 20-30 mph. We could be seeing drifts that may be larger than we have seen in a long, LONG time. I will be updating this more as the storm approaches.
Best,
Andrew Buck Michael
Saturday, February 6, 2010
Round Two on the Way!!!
So after a hectic morning reporting in the Northern Miami Valley, where I could without getting a ticket, it looks like we could be dealing with more problems in the coming days.
Early Tuesday morning we will see another system arrive to the area before the morning rush hour. Models are hinting at several inches, but less than what we saw with this system that just passed. Temps will be close to the freezing mark again so I am going to wait tomorrow before releasing any estimated totals to see if we will be seeing all snow, or possibly some icing for some of the Miami Valley. The big problem will be the winds Wednesday into early Thursday. Sustained winds of 20-30 mph with gusts over 30 will be expected, and with the current snow already forming drifts, Tuesday and Wednesday's snow will now have to fill in any of the cracks or crevasses and will be fair game to "drift away."
Thanks to everyone for all the comments on the blog the last few days with snow totals, conditions, as well as photos. Have a good one!
Best,
Andrew Buck Michael
Early Tuesday morning we will see another system arrive to the area before the morning rush hour. Models are hinting at several inches, but less than what we saw with this system that just passed. Temps will be close to the freezing mark again so I am going to wait tomorrow before releasing any estimated totals to see if we will be seeing all snow, or possibly some icing for some of the Miami Valley. The big problem will be the winds Wednesday into early Thursday. Sustained winds of 20-30 mph with gusts over 30 will be expected, and with the current snow already forming drifts, Tuesday and Wednesday's snow will now have to fill in any of the cracks or crevasses and will be fair game to "drift away."
Thanks to everyone for all the comments on the blog the last few days with snow totals, conditions, as well as photos. Have a good one!
Best,
Andrew Buck Michael
I got stuck...
That's right! I am out reporting and actually in Covington currently. I was coming from Troy to Covington on St Rt 41. I came up to a tow truck in the ditch and a box truck in the ditch. One lane was recently plowed, but was drifting shut very rapidly. But anyways, coming up to it, I tried to go around one of the trucks, but it turns out what looked like the road was the ditch..... Then after a while I found out two snow plows were stuck as well about a hundred feet up and everyone was in super deep..... I surveyed the area and figured if I could rock myself out of the ditch and into the cornfield, the snow would drop from 18 inches to about 3. So I got out of the truck and on my hands and knees in the drifted snow, dug out each tire til I had about 2 feet of grass or pavement. It took some time and patience, but after about close to 100 rocks of the truck, I finally got into the field. There was no way that I would be able to cross the ditch to get back to the road to try to pull anyone out and it was already starting to drift back shut about 12 to 18 inches high, which is even un-doable for my Silverado. So I drove through the field and got to a farm and shot through a snow drift to get back to the road.... There wasn't anything I could have done to help the others get out of the snow, I would have gotten myself stuck in the process in the drifted snow, and these guys were in DEEP, so I pressed on down 41, had to drive though a few drifts over a foot high. You really couldn't see them either, visibilities are down to less than 100 feet and by the time you get to the drift, you hold on and hope its not a long drift.... Anyways, currently camped in Covington because the Covington Police just told me that almost all roads in and out of town are impassable and even with 4 wheel drive they would just wait a little bit.
Best,
Andrew Buck Michael
Best,
Andrew Buck Michael
EARLY Saturday Morning Check-in
So as previously mentioned, the line from Richmond over to Logan County is where we have seen the heaviest snow, and to top it all off so far as of 1:49, the heaviest snow looks to be between Piqua and Troy. The attached image is from the National Weather Service. Now you may think the area by Wilmington got more, but keep in mind that they saw icing and their snow totals will not be close to what they have seen so far in Miami County.... Anyways looks like an interesting morning, I will be out and about doing reports in the thick of it, so keep it tuned in to ABC 22 or FOX 45 for our special coverage today... Have a good one!
Best,
Andrew Buck Michael
Friday, February 5, 2010
Pushing a foot?
Earlier this morning the freezing rain QUICKLY turned back to snow, and in a line from Richmond through South Central Darke County through all of Miami County, through all of Logan County and northern Clark, we could easily be seeing close to 12" by the time all is said and done. The lack of the rain/snow and ice mix did not cut back on the allotted snowfall totals, and actually will cause them to bump up even more....
A lot of photos have been rolling in a few below are from some friends on Darke Journal. One photo of the road is near Abbottsville on St Rt 49, the other is at Shawnee Prairie in Greenville.
Thanks for the photos and keep the reports and pics coming!!
Best,
Andrew Buck Michael
A lot of photos have been rolling in a few below are from some friends on Darke Journal. One photo of the road is near Abbottsville on St Rt 49, the other is at Shawnee Prairie in Greenville.
Thanks for the photos and keep the reports and pics coming!!
Best,
Andrew Buck Michael
Goodbye Grass!
Best,
Andrew Buck Michael
Starting to accumulate
Here in Sidney we got about 1.5 inches right now, I attached a photo of what we got so far.
Snow finally reaching the far northern parts of the Miami Valley. Here are a few comments of current conditions around the area:
Greenville 12:34: "I just measured 1.5"
Lima 12:38: "so far a big disappointment, lol. We have nothin' at this minute"
Lima 1:07: "Just started here."
Keep 'em coming... The first hour or so here in Sidney the snow melted on the pavement, so that will refreeze into ice later with snow on top. I expect this will be common across much of the Miami Valley, be weary of hidden ice under snow covered roads!!
Best,
Andrew Buck Michael
Snow finally reaching the far northern parts of the Miami Valley. Here are a few comments of current conditions around the area:
Greenville 12:34: "I just measured 1.5"
Lima 12:38: "so far a big disappointment, lol. We have nothin' at this minute"
Lima 1:07: "Just started here."
Keep 'em coming... The first hour or so here in Sidney the snow melted on the pavement, so that will refreeze into ice later with snow on top. I expect this will be common across much of the Miami Valley, be weary of hidden ice under snow covered roads!!
Best,
Andrew Buck Michael
Update on the snow...
Well the evaporative cooling is working, I know here in Sidney at my weather station we have cooled 2.4 degrees since the snow started falling... Right now a light dusting of snow as you can see in the picture.
Here are a few reports from the readers, keep them coming, just post a comment at the top or bottom of the blog!!
Greenville 9:36 "snowing outside my front window right now"
Abbottsville 10:18 "it has about completed the transition from freezing rain to snow"
Greenville 10:31 "it has covered quickly in the last 10 minutes.....we have had no rain....all snow"
Again, keep the reports coming in! Also we will be having special reports on the snow coverage on ABC 22 starting at 5 AM Saturday.... I will be out field reporting for it all day tomorrow, so leave a comment on here letting me know where you live and why you want me to do a snowfall total there and I will try to make it happen, just leave a comment on here.... Like I said before, why not have a little fun with this storm!!
I will be back on shortly, until then, have a good one!
Best,
Andrew Buck Michael
Here are a few reports from the readers, keep them coming, just post a comment at the top or bottom of the blog!!
Greenville 9:36 "snowing outside my front window right now"
Abbottsville 10:18 "it has about completed the transition from freezing rain to snow"
Greenville 10:31 "it has covered quickly in the last 10 minutes.....we have had no rain....all snow"
Again, keep the reports coming in! Also we will be having special reports on the snow coverage on ABC 22 starting at 5 AM Saturday.... I will be out field reporting for it all day tomorrow, so leave a comment on here letting me know where you live and why you want me to do a snowfall total there and I will try to make it happen, just leave a comment on here.... Like I said before, why not have a little fun with this storm!!
I will be back on shortly, until then, have a good one!
Best,
Andrew Buck Michael
Snowfall totals ramped up!
The most up-to-date models are in and they are calling for even more precipitation due to enhanced conditions.
Now I have gotten a few reports here to the blog, my parents in South-Central Darke County, said they are seeing a few flakes of snow at 9:20, one person in Arcanum said it was freezing rain at 8:15, but now, 9:20, turned to a few flakes of snow, and someone in Celina actually reported rain at 8:15 as well.... If you would like to send in what you are seeing and at what time, I would be glad to repost those so others get an idea of what it is doing. The radar tries its best to decipher what is falling to the ground, but nothing beats human observation.
If the evaporative cooling does the trick and we switch back over to all snow, I think 6-10" is definitely within our reach, possibly slightly more in some spots. If we continue to see a light icing, it will take an inch or two off of our expected totals. The snow looks to be more enhanced and the atmosphere is basically holding a basket of moisture over us and if it decides to cool down, we are about to get dumped on...
I will be back on throughout the day so keep up-to-date right here, and comment in your observations, thanks in advance.... Have a good one!
Best,
Andrew Buck Michael
Now I have gotten a few reports here to the blog, my parents in South-Central Darke County, said they are seeing a few flakes of snow at 9:20, one person in Arcanum said it was freezing rain at 8:15, but now, 9:20, turned to a few flakes of snow, and someone in Celina actually reported rain at 8:15 as well.... If you would like to send in what you are seeing and at what time, I would be glad to repost those so others get an idea of what it is doing. The radar tries its best to decipher what is falling to the ground, but nothing beats human observation.
If the evaporative cooling does the trick and we switch back over to all snow, I think 6-10" is definitely within our reach, possibly slightly more in some spots. If we continue to see a light icing, it will take an inch or two off of our expected totals. The snow looks to be more enhanced and the atmosphere is basically holding a basket of moisture over us and if it decides to cool down, we are about to get dumped on...
I will be back on throughout the day so keep up-to-date right here, and comment in your observations, thanks in advance.... Have a good one!
Best,
Andrew Buck Michael
Might need to tack on a couple more....
Well it is 1:50 AM Friday morning and my first chance to sit down and check the models, been busy doing a story on all the people heading out to get ready for the snow.
Anyways the new models are showing some enhanced snowfall.... Again, if you see any icing, or especially any prolonged icing, expect your snowfall totals to be less, but if you are seeing all snow, I think 8" would not be out of the question for the mid part of the Miami Valley with some locations seeing slightly more. The system is ramping up as it is entering our area and the icing and rain/snow mix will be the deciding factor as to how much snow people will be seeing.... Mike Terwilleger and Jeff Booth will be in on Friday and Saturday with extended coverage starting each day at 5 AM, as well as myself doing field reports on the snow....
Here is a thought that I might be able to swing by the boss, leave a comment on here letting me know where you live and why you want me to do a snowfall total there and I will try to make it happen during my field reporting, just leave a comment on here.... Why not have a little fun with this storm!! Have a good one and travel safely!
Best,
Andrew Buck Michael
Thursday, February 4, 2010
Sidney Storm Blues
So the farther north you go, such as Sidney, and northward, still are not part of the Winter Storm Watch..... A little sad up here for me because according to the National Weather Service it's as if Sidney will be missing a lot of the action, although they still will see a sizable snow.
So here is the breakdown, Highway 35 and south look to start off as a rain/snow mix and could linger into the afternoon hours as well. South of 35, I think the snowfall totals will be around 3-5", with a few spots getting up to 6".
Between Highway 35 and 36, there may be a brief period of the rain/snow during the morning or early afternoon hours, but expect this area to see about 4-7" of snow. The longer the rain/snow and ice sticks around, the less snow once the system has passed.
Once you start heading farther north of 36, it should remain mostly all snow and the snowfall totals will taper off the farther north you go. The north could still see the 4-7", but once you start getting closer to Highway 33, expect the snowfall totals to be closer to 3-5".
So the heaviest looks to be through the central part of the Miami Valley. Keep in mind, if you happen to see heavier cells of snow, you may be on the higher end of the spectrum, or you may be on the lower end of the spectrum if you happen to see lighter cells. If this changes, I will let you know, but that is the breakdown as of 10:30 AM. Have a good one!
Best,
Andrew Buck Michael
So here is the breakdown, Highway 35 and south look to start off as a rain/snow mix and could linger into the afternoon hours as well. South of 35, I think the snowfall totals will be around 3-5", with a few spots getting up to 6".
Between Highway 35 and 36, there may be a brief period of the rain/snow during the morning or early afternoon hours, but expect this area to see about 4-7" of snow. The longer the rain/snow and ice sticks around, the less snow once the system has passed.
Once you start heading farther north of 36, it should remain mostly all snow and the snowfall totals will taper off the farther north you go. The north could still see the 4-7", but once you start getting closer to Highway 33, expect the snowfall totals to be closer to 3-5".
So the heaviest looks to be through the central part of the Miami Valley. Keep in mind, if you happen to see heavier cells of snow, you may be on the higher end of the spectrum, or you may be on the lower end of the spectrum if you happen to see lighter cells. If this changes, I will let you know, but that is the breakdown as of 10:30 AM. Have a good one!
Best,
Andrew Buck Michael
Wednesday, February 3, 2010
Still on course...
We are still set to see the precipitation arrive in the morning hours on Friday....
Also still looking at a rain/snow mix for the southern half of the Miami Valley on Friday-day.... right now still to early to say whether Highway 35, 70, 36, or 47 will be that dividing line.... But if you live right on the northern side of the rain/snow line, that will be where the deeper accumulation will settle. Anyone seeing the rain/snow will cut down the snowfall totals. I still feel that on average 4-7" is a good estimate for recent models. Since it is moving in a little earlier, we will see the warmth of daytime keep temperatures near the freezing mark until Friday evening when it will switch back to all snow for everyone.
Another thing to think about is icing on the roadways during the day on Friday. The mix will freeze over on untreated roads Friday evening and ice hidden under the snow will cause drivers to feel "safe" on snow but forget that a sheet of ice may be hiding underneath.
As we head into Saturday winds will be between 10-20 mph, so drifting snow will also be a problem that will linger after the snow has stopped.
I will have another update mid-morning Thursday, until then, have a good one!!
Best,
Andrew Buck Michael
Also still looking at a rain/snow mix for the southern half of the Miami Valley on Friday-day.... right now still to early to say whether Highway 35, 70, 36, or 47 will be that dividing line.... But if you live right on the northern side of the rain/snow line, that will be where the deeper accumulation will settle. Anyone seeing the rain/snow will cut down the snowfall totals. I still feel that on average 4-7" is a good estimate for recent models. Since it is moving in a little earlier, we will see the warmth of daytime keep temperatures near the freezing mark until Friday evening when it will switch back to all snow for everyone.
Another thing to think about is icing on the roadways during the day on Friday. The mix will freeze over on untreated roads Friday evening and ice hidden under the snow will cause drivers to feel "safe" on snow but forget that a sheet of ice may be hiding underneath.
As we head into Saturday winds will be between 10-20 mph, so drifting snow will also be a problem that will linger after the snow has stopped.
I will have another update mid-morning Thursday, until then, have a good one!!
Best,
Andrew Buck Michael
Snow Storm is yelling: "Early Delivery!"
First off, I want to say that there are a lot of moving parts with this system and I will continue to up date the blog twice a day until it passes to keep everyone posted.
So the newest information has the storm system coming a little earlier compared to yesterday's models. The rain/snow mix could move into the Miami Valley before or around Noon on Friday depending on where you live. With the rain/snow mix it will cut back on our expected snowfall totals. Once the evening comes Friday we will cool off to turn to complete snow. It is still hard to pinpoint as to how far the rain/snow line will progress northward right now, because the difference in just a degree or two will mean the difference between rain and snow. I think the Miami Valley could see about 4-6." Now with that said.... if we get enough evaporative cooling, we could see the rain/snow turn to snow a little sooner and bump up our totals. Evaporative cooling is when precipitation falls through the air, it actually evaporates a little if the humidity is less than 100% and actually causes the atmosphere to cool down slightly... On the flip side, if we warm up a little more we could see our snowfall totals be dropped a bit.
I will update this again this evening when new data is in to help refine the forecast... until then, have a good one!!
Best,
Andrew Buck Michael
So the newest information has the storm system coming a little earlier compared to yesterday's models. The rain/snow mix could move into the Miami Valley before or around Noon on Friday depending on where you live. With the rain/snow mix it will cut back on our expected snowfall totals. Once the evening comes Friday we will cool off to turn to complete snow. It is still hard to pinpoint as to how far the rain/snow line will progress northward right now, because the difference in just a degree or two will mean the difference between rain and snow. I think the Miami Valley could see about 4-6." Now with that said.... if we get enough evaporative cooling, we could see the rain/snow turn to snow a little sooner and bump up our totals. Evaporative cooling is when precipitation falls through the air, it actually evaporates a little if the humidity is less than 100% and actually causes the atmosphere to cool down slightly... On the flip side, if we warm up a little more we could see our snowfall totals be dropped a bit.
I will update this again this evening when new data is in to help refine the forecast... until then, have a good one!!
Best,
Andrew Buck Michael
Tuesday, February 2, 2010
Late-Night update
So after the afternoon and evening models, we are still on-track to see a sizable snow.... Parts of the southern Miami Valley could see a little rain to start things off Friday afternoon.... I will dive into estimated snowfall totals more on Wednesday, but recent models are still in agreement and we will be seeing the most snowfall of the season from one storm.... Just so you know, 4.3 is the most we have seen from one storm for the Miami Valley... so expect 4.3 to be on the lighter side of things for this system.... Again, updates tomorrow, rest easy and obviously have a good one!!
Best,
Andrew Buck Michael
Best,
Andrew Buck Michael
This weekend looking like a Winter Wonderland
So things are looking better for more snow for us coming up Friday late afternoon through Sunday, with the heaviest of the snow overnight Friday night. The track of the storm will still be staying to our south, but not looking quite as far south as the "gutter balls" that yesterday's models had. With the track of the storm staying south, the southern half of the Miami Valley could be be seeing about 6" or more according to the most recent models. The snow will slowly taper off the farther North you go. The northern part of the Miami Valley could still see up to 5" according to the recent models. The best thing is that the two of the "beefiest" models or the ones that have the most up-to-date weather data added to them are the ones that are showing more of a northern track... still keeping the rain out of our hair and showing it all snow.... It is still too early to start talking exact numbers, but I hope to start getting more into that tomorrow as long as the models keep their consistency.
Best,
Andrew Buck Michael
Best,
Andrew Buck Michael
Monday, February 1, 2010
Second Frame
Since I got so much good feedback on the bowling analogy yesterday, I thought I would keep it going for at least one more frame.... This blog will be a bit more techincal and bumpy so keep your hands inside at all times and fasten your seat belts.
So we went from a consistent bowler from 180 feet, to a less consistent bowler at 150 feet. Lets first talk about the gutter balls.... In weather terminology, our "weather midnight" is 0z... 7PM while daylight savings time isn't in effect. At 7PM and 7AM they send up weather balloons so these models normally have the best "grasp" of the storm with up to the minute data, and both the 0z (7PM) and 12z (7AM) models were showing the storm shifting a little farther south compared to yesterday's models which means much less snow. When I first saw the 0z late last night, I told my friend, Jimmy Noe, think of one fluke model as a gutter ball. You can remember the muscle memory you just did and visualize how you messed up and just try not to repeat it, so basically put it at the back of your mind and do not think about it. HOWEVER.... When you get a second gutterball, 12z, you start to wonder....
The 6z model still showed us with a decent snowfall, the most we have seen this year, but will that hold true or will the 12z model. The most recent model, 18z, has just came through and it is showing that the storm has shifted a little south, but our area still seeing some snow.... just not the most so far this year, but at least it hinted that it wouldn't completely skip over our area like the last system.
In addition to our American long-term model, I took a look at the CFM, Canadain Forecast Model. Their 12z model looked a lot like the 18z American model. It has us seeing some snow, just not a "snow storm".
The problem now is that we are not as consistent as we were this time yesterday.... Once the models all agree once again and get back onto the same track it will be easier to pin-point the estimated totals that we could see. Another benefit 24 hours will bring is an American additional model that goes out 4.5 days. This will act as a "bowling coach", and help correct any inconsistencies that we are having. So right now, we still have the system in our line of sight, but its bouncing around a little.... How much snow will we see, well it all depends on the track of the system, hopefully the models will have a better handle and agree a little better within the next 24 hours, and you can bet I will will be back on here to keep you updated, until then, have a good one!
Best,
Andrew Buck Michael
So we went from a consistent bowler from 180 feet, to a less consistent bowler at 150 feet. Lets first talk about the gutter balls.... In weather terminology, our "weather midnight" is 0z... 7PM while daylight savings time isn't in effect. At 7PM and 7AM they send up weather balloons so these models normally have the best "grasp" of the storm with up to the minute data, and both the 0z (7PM) and 12z (7AM) models were showing the storm shifting a little farther south compared to yesterday's models which means much less snow. When I first saw the 0z late last night, I told my friend, Jimmy Noe, think of one fluke model as a gutter ball. You can remember the muscle memory you just did and visualize how you messed up and just try not to repeat it, so basically put it at the back of your mind and do not think about it. HOWEVER.... When you get a second gutterball, 12z, you start to wonder....
The 6z model still showed us with a decent snowfall, the most we have seen this year, but will that hold true or will the 12z model. The most recent model, 18z, has just came through and it is showing that the storm has shifted a little south, but our area still seeing some snow.... just not the most so far this year, but at least it hinted that it wouldn't completely skip over our area like the last system.
In addition to our American long-term model, I took a look at the CFM, Canadain Forecast Model. Their 12z model looked a lot like the 18z American model. It has us seeing some snow, just not a "snow storm".
The problem now is that we are not as consistent as we were this time yesterday.... Once the models all agree once again and get back onto the same track it will be easier to pin-point the estimated totals that we could see. Another benefit 24 hours will bring is an American additional model that goes out 4.5 days. This will act as a "bowling coach", and help correct any inconsistencies that we are having. So right now, we still have the system in our line of sight, but its bouncing around a little.... How much snow will we see, well it all depends on the track of the system, hopefully the models will have a better handle and agree a little better within the next 24 hours, and you can bet I will will be back on here to keep you updated, until then, have a good one!
Best,
Andrew Buck Michael
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