Sunday night snow storm update

It barely got above freezing today, but you could EASILY see how the sunshine helps melt the snow.  Quite impressive!  Enough with that... let's get to the forecast!  Feel free to click on the next couple of images to make them larger.

So there are A LOT of "forecasts" getting thrown around and I want to explain why I am thinking the forecast that I am going with...  The above image shows how the closer to the low pressure you are the warmer it gets.  The low pressure will keep the warm air close to it and keep the precipitation as rain.  A little further to the left of the low, you will have a wintry mix because the temperatures are right near the 32° and will result in some rain, freezing rain, or sleet.  If the temperatures stay cold enough all the way up into the atmosphere then you will stay as snow, but still close enough to the main moisture source(the Low).  This band west of the wintry mix, that is just below freezing, will result in heavy snow and then even a little less snow further to the left as you get further from the Low.  So if the low pressure moves a little bit then the precipitation will also move right along with it.

So knowing all of this... The above image is the model runs from the Euro, Canadian, and two American models.  The foreign models are definitely trending further east. The one thing I want to point out is that nearly each individual model run trends further west.  They ALL are slowly moving westward.  If that continues the next couple days, then we will be seeing the warm core moving right up toward the Western parts of Ohio meaning more snow.

Here is the current watches and warnings across the country.  The dark blue is the Winter Storm Watch for this storm.  The National Weather Service is trending even further west with this storm than I am thinking right now... they may be favoring the American models a little more or the fact that they are seeing the trend of the models moving west each model run...  Regardless... it is going to be interesting and as you can see the models are still trying to decide on the track.

With all of that said and done... The image above is my forecast for Wednesday's system, based off of tonight's information.  This is an evolving system and I will be keeping a very close eye on it.  Now to the timing of the coming days:

Tonight we stay dry and see increasing clouds.  A weak system rolls in for tomorrow.  Morning temperatures will be near freezing and we could see a brief wintry mix near daybreak turning back over to rain showers quickly and light scattered, hit or miss, rain showers for the remainder of the daylight hours.  Once the temperatures fall in the evening then a few flurries will fall around Ohio and last into Christmas morning.  Just a few light flurries... wish it was more.  Other than a few early flurries on Christmas we will see partly cloudy skies and chilly temps.  The system on Wednesday starts near daybreak and will last throughout the day.  Heaviest precip looks to be in the first half of the day... so any rain will mean a significant drop in snowfall totals.  Once the temps fall in the evening a light snow will stick around into early Thursday with an additional half an inch to one inch of snow.  I am hoping a "dry slot" does not move in Wednesday night.  That is when cold dry air punches in and it drys out the atmosphere and cuts off snow formation.  We dry out Friday and then another weak system on Saturday with another inch or two... still a long ways out.

Someone WILL get blanketed in snow later this week and I will be back to update you on the track of the storm.  Until then, take time to enjoy those around you.  I will be off of work the next two days and back on-air for Wednesday's morning show, so I will need to keep up-to-date on the storm.  I will be blogging from the road during the next few days, so please check back in because this storm is not yet settled down.  Travel safe and have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael