Windy, Wet, Stormy Halloween night ahead

The National Weather Service has already issued a Wind Advisory in the light brown area.  The tan area, above, is a hazardous weather outlook warning of high winds.  I would not be surprised if the entire map is under a Wind Advisory for tonight... if not a High Wind Watch/Warning.

We are expecting some strong to severe storms later today, but strong to severe showers would be a more appropriate title.  We will not have a lot of lightning with the system on the way, but that will not hinder the storms.

As expected, the Storm Prediction Center moved the Slight Risk for severe weather further north.  Called that in my last blog entry.  The main threat will be strong winds.  The winds this afternoon, evening, and overnight will pick up to around 30 mph with gusts pushing 45 mph.  This is ahead of the rain... so the winds in the storms will be even stronger.

The FutureRadar is showing some late afternoon showers.  The above image is for 4PM.  Notice the green pushing into Ohio.  Just some moderate rain for the late afternoon with the strong winds.

The above image shows 9PM.  Notice the strong line starting to for in Indiana.  That line will continue pushing toward Ohio.

Here is a more resolute image for 9PM.  This shows the line a little more broken.  That is actually bad news for Indiana.  There is a slim chance for tornadic cells because there will be a decent amount of low level wind shear, or change in direction of winds in the lower atmosphere.

Above is the 8AM weather balloon sent up from the NWS office in Wilmington, Oh.  Notice the surface winds are coming out of the south, but by the time you get up a few kilometers the winds are starting to almost go westerly.  This will be even more pronounced later tonight.  If a cell becomes strong enough and takes on the traits of the atmosphere's turn in direction then you likely can get a rotating updraft and possibly lead toward a tornado.  This would be more pronounced over Indiana, but Ohio is very marginally under the risk.

By around 1AM the strong line will be moving through Central Ohio.  Maybe a lingering shower or two early Friday, and later Saturday, but the main concern is the winds for tonight.  I would tie down any loose items outside now.  Again, we are only under the Slight Risk, but still take it seriously. 

So just to break it down... between now and the early afternoon we will remain generally dry in Central Ohio.  The late afternoon a few passing showers with some gusty winds 30+ mph.  We have some dry pockets for trick or treat time, but still remaining windy.  More stronger showers/storms expected before and just after midnight with the strongest winds of the night.  Rain pushes to the east in the middle of the night and the winds stay brisk for early Friday.

The good news is that with winds as strong as they will be... no need to rake the leaves today. Haha.  Always gotta look at the good side of things.  If any big changes come up, I will let you know.  Have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Storms for Halloween

Still on track for the storms for tomorrow.  I have been busy as a bee at work and I have not agreed with the forecasts coming out of the Storm Prediction Center over the last two days.  They have kept the threat for severe weather to the south, but are finally including parts of Ohio in the mix.  I still think they could extend the Slight Risk, in the yellow, a little further north.  More on that in a second.

Today scattered light rain showers... hit or miss.  There may even be a rumble of thunder or two, but today will not be the main concern.  Tomorrow, Halloween, we start off with dry conditions with storms arriving for the late afternoon and especially for the evening.  Winds, before the storms, for the evening tomorrow will be sustained at least 30 mph, if not stronger.  The winds within the thunderstorms will be even stronger.  The main threat will be strong winds and there is even the possibility for some isolated tornadoes just due to the fact that this front is such a collision of colder air and the mixing, or shear, will be present.  Ohio will be on the marginal side of the severe weather, with the strongest storms to the south and west.  Make sure to stay alert later tomorrow and turn on your weather radio.

We then have a few lingering early showers Friday, then a few late day showers Saturday and temperatures return to the 50's for highs.  Back to late-fall temperatures for Ohio.  Keep the umbrella handy and have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Ustream & Halloween storms?

I am doing another Ustream LIVE video chat tomorrow night, Sunday, at 8:30PM.  Feel free to stop on by and ask any weather questions you would like.  I will be answer them over the video stream tomorrow night.  I did it on Monday night and it turned out so well that I want to make it a weekly segment.  The link to get to it: http://www.ustream.tv/channel/live-wx-chat

Clearing skies heading into Sunday.  More sunshine for Sunday and Monday with only a few passing clouds.  We start a warming trend heading into the week ahead.

A warm front Wednesday will bring some showers and warmer temperatures for Thursday.  Cold front on the way for later Thursday has the potential for severe weather.  We will be keeping a close eye on the potential for storms for late-week.  Possibly followed by more flurries into next weekend.  Until then, enjoy the sunshine and have a good one!


Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Snow recap

I always love coming up with cool ideas for stories, yesterday I did a story on teen driving and I put a few of me inside the car at the same time talking to each other to show how easy distractions can be found.  Turned out pretty fun.  Now that I have done it once, I know how easy it will be next time. 

Well... we saw our first round of snow.  Dayton airport actually saw an INCH!!!  We didn't see nearly that here in Columbus, but close in spots.  With the ground so warm, it didn't stick around very long.  For anyone not ready for winter just yet... warmer temperatures are on the way.  By next week our highs will be back in the 60's.   With temperatures that warm, I see no snow for Central Ohio for quite some time.  They may be a decent snowfall for the Plains for the middle of next week, but our temperatures look too warm for any snow.  Don't worry though.  The long range forecast does have some systems swinging through Ohio with much colder systems.  It could be a fun winter!  Have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck michael

Sick Buckeye, Ustream, Shoe medal, cold coming

LOTS to touch on tonight.  Buckeye has been sick a few days and last night he became violently ill so we had to take him to the animal hospital.  They did some blood work and that turned out very healthy.  They gave him some antibiotics and some other medications and he is doing a little better today.  He has been sleeping a lot, but at least no stomach ache like last night.

I have mentioned the Ohio State Four Miler run that I am doing in November.  I just saw the finishing medal... They look AWESOME!!  I have been training, but probably not enough to reach my goal.  Oh well...

Special thanks to all of YOU who stopped by my Ustream LIVE WX CHAT tonight.  If you missed it, people could type questions and ask what they wanted to know about the weather and I would answer the questions on the LIVE video stream.  Pretty cool and everyone said they had a fun time.  I want to start doing it more often when I am in the studio doing the weather.

The cold snap arrives tonight.  Rain is pushing through currently and the skies will clear on the backside.  Temperatures will fall fast and the Northern portions of Ohio are under a Frost Advisory because of that for Tuesday morning.  We are dry through the daytime of Tuesday.  Early Wednesday morning rain showers will push in and temperatures will be in the mid and lower 30's.  There likely will be some pockets of snowflakes mixing in with the rain.  No accumulation expected because the ground will be too warm and wet... but the first snowflakes of the season, best chances north of I-70.  A few flurries are also possible Thursday, but spotty.  We dry out for a few days then and staying cold with low temperatures near the freezing mark.  Better get that winter coat ready!  Have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Lenticular clouds in Ohio

Lenticular clouds are rare.  They normally form near mountainous areas.  Lenticular clouds in Ohio... well I have only ever witnessed it once.  Today they happened again.  This picture was sent in from a viewer near Newark today.  Pretty cool.  There were a few over Columbus as well.

I broke a cufflink today.  I noticed that it was bent a little more than the normal angle and turned it over and it snapped.  I am not sure if there is enough surface area to glue it back together, or try to salvage it... I will try though.  I wore these daily during my in-studio days.

Well... not a whole lot changed with the forecast.  The models keep bouncing around.  Rain expected Monday night.  It should be out of here by daybreak Tuesday.  The daytime hours Monday and Tuesday look dry for almost all of Central Ohio.  Early Wednesday morning will be the next system.  It is looking more and more like rain mixed with some snow in spots.  The NAM today went all snow and you have to throw out the one rogue model run like that.  The big decider will be what time the system rolls in because early in the morning will be colder and allow for more snow.  Still looking at some flurries later in the week as well and staying cold.  Low temperatures later this week will be near the freezing mark several nights in a row.  It looks like any tender plants may be taking the hit of winter on the way.  Have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Frost Advisory

Chilly night ahead.  We have a Frost Advisory form a decent portion of the viewing area. Be sure to tend to any tender vegetation that you want to survive.  Overnight lows will be in the mid and lower 30's.  

It was a bit of a soggy first half of the day.  The rain cleared out as expected just before the Ohio State game, but I helped set up the family tailgate in the rain.  I normally avoid riding my moped in the rain and I remember why now.  I don't run a rear fender and my back side was SOAKED on the three mile ride there.  So I bought a $1 paint tray and zip tied it on... worked great and my ride home, before work, was MUCH drier since the wheel was not spraying me.

The rain is gone and the skies are clearing for tonight.  I don't expect fog to be a widespread issue because of a decent breeze.  More sun for Sunday with a few clouds as well, especially across the Northern half of Ohio.  Rain returns for Monday night with the cold blast of air to follow.  Wednesday there looks to be a bit of a wintry mix.  It looks like maybe some flurries early and then when we warm up some switch to mainly scattered light rain showers and maybe a few flurries later once we cool back off.  A few flurries for Thursday are possible as well.  The models can't agree on the timing just yet.  Either way, they all agree it will be fairly light and COLD.  Be back tomorrow with another update.  Have a good one!

Best,

Andrew Buck Michael

Lunar eclipse, flurries, & Ohio State forecast

The moon was a bit of a letdown tonight for us, in Ohio.  I didn't mention it on-air tonight because I assumed as much and hate hyping something when I know it will not be great viewing.  People get letdown when they are standing outside in the chilly temps.

The sun was blocking the light getting to the moon and you can see where the best viewing would be on the map above.  Europe, Africa and the Atlantic Ocean had a great show.  By the time the moon was coming over the horizon for us, in Ohio, the eclipse was on its last legs and becoming more lit.  The only thing noticeable would be the lower right corner was a little darker than normal.  Oh well... another time.

For fun, I checked the soil temperatures for next week and we would still be at 40 degrees for the morning low on Friday, so again, no snow will stick to bare soil.

Each model run fluctuates with timing of the flurries or light snow, but late Wednesday into Thursday looks to be the best time frame to see the first snowflakes for Ohio of the season.  It will be enough to spot, but not much more than that.  Only a sign of what is on the way. 

Keep the umbrella handy for any tailgating tomorrow.  Rain will move in for the morning and the early afternoon.  Kickoff will be around the time the rain will move out and we will continue to dry out the rest of the game.  Chilly as well, so bundle up.  Sunday will be chilly for the Columbus marathon then turn into a beautiful day to check out some of the fall foliage followed by more isolated rain Monday night into early Tuesday.  Then the cold blast.  Have a great weekend.  I will be back tomorrow night and Sunday.  (Working a nine day stretch)  Have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Fired up the fireplace yet?

Gotta love fall.  I was leaving work and could smell a nearby wood burner or fireplace.  I LOVE that smell.  It reminds you that fall is in the air.  This photo is from Brittney, a viewer, having a little fire to warm the house.

Keep the wood handy.  We are going to have a BIG cold blast of air next week.  The Climate Prediction Center released these forecasts today, for their 6 to 10 day outlook.  I totally agree with their forecast on this.  Much colder and slightly above normal precipitation, which is what we have been seeing all October.  We have already doubled the normal rainfall for the month at Port Columbus

The models are still staying cold for next week.  They vary a little with each update.  The 18z GFS model above shows a nice bit of October snow for next Thursday.  NONE OF IT WILL STICK THOUGH.  So don't get your hopes up too high if you are a snow-lover.  I think you will be plenty happy this winter.  The Euro models are bringing in the snow a little earlier and actually pushing the clipper further South.  (Remember, they tend to pull more North when they actually swing down from Canada). 

The rain today has cleared out and a little fog overnight in spots.  We see more sun later Friday after some of the morning fog.  More showers midday Saturday and then another cold front Monday night into Tuesday.  I will be back again with an update... until then, have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Snow next week???

I am not surprised since we are over the halfway point in October, but the forecast models are showing a HINT of snow for next week.  The snow, circled in red above, would be for the afternoon Wednesday... and the models are showing even a better chance of snow for Wednesday night(in the image below)  Right now I am not buying it yet, and I will tell you why.  

 The above map shows next Wednesday night (technically 2AM Thursday) as a STRONG blast of cold air is expected.  It is still 7+ days out.  I have used the analogy before... forecasting is a LOT like bowling.  A one day forecast is like bowling half the length of a bowling lane... hitting a strike or at least a spare is pretty easy.  Two days out is the regulation length... still possible to hit a strike.  When you go 7 days out there are a LOT more variables and it would be like bowling the length of three and a half regulation bowling lanes.  The ball may start spinning one way or the other.  That being said... we are entering fall.  The low that you see by Pittsburgh is a clipper system.  It will race down from Canada and this is the kind of system that brings some of our light snowfall totals over winter.  The models always love to bring them further south than what actually pans out.  They always tend to ride further north in real life than the models indicate.  So the freezing line as far south as Tennessee... I don't buy that yet.  We need to see if the models shift(and they always do), but next week definitely has me watching. 

Even a peak at the European model, above, shows some flurries for next Thursday afternoon.(Above image is for 2PM next Thursday)  It also is showing the 540 line(for our sake we will call it the freezing line) as far south as Tennessee as well.  It will be interesting to see how it all pans out. Snow is a polarizing topic.  Some people love it, some people hate it... some people love it for a month then hate it.  I love forecasting winter systems because the difference of 1°F will mean the snow changes to rain.  LOVE IT!  It is a great challenge.  So stay tuned... I will have daily updates.

 

As for the next 7 days(cuz we have to get through them first...) Tonight we are already seeing some clearing.  I snapped this photo on my way to dinner.  The sky looked like it was on fire over Broadcast Lake.  The clearing tonight will allow our temperatures to fall into the mid 40's overnight.  Our highs bounce around the 60 degree mark for the next six says with lows in the mid to low 40's as well.  As far as the chance for rain... We could see an isolated shower or two tomorrow, Thursday, and again on Saturday.  We will stay dry for Friday and again on Sunday and most of the day Monday.  Another cold front will swing through Monday night into early Tuesday bringing more rain... and then... Wednesday is the big iffy.  Like I said, I will keep an eye on it, but for right now, still thinking rain, but maybe some snowflakes mixing in for the far Northern portions of Ohio.  Check back in and have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

#MopedAdventure #200MilesOrBust

I mentioned how I had planned the 200 mile trip to ride my moped back to my parents' farm and back to Columbus.  Well I did it, and here are the pictures from the trip.

I got a little later start than expected, but made sure my bike was ready to rock for the trip.

Time to hit the road!  I left Columbus at 11:10AM.

My bike was running pretty hot, so I raised the needle along side the road to help cool off my mid throttle positions.  I helped a little, but I was worried that my carb was getting dirty and that was why I was running so hot considering it was a cool fall day.

I stopped in Mechanicsburg to buy carb cleaner and then I noticed my rear rack.  I had over fifty pounds in it with my spare motor, fuel, and tools.  A lot of people question why I took a spare motor, but it would take less time to swap a motor than wait for someone to come get me.  Turns out, I didn't need it.

So I put all the tools in my backpack and strapped the motor to the front of my seat.  I had to straddle it, but at least I know it wasn't going anywhere.  I only had a few light items in my rack for the rest of the 60 miles back to my parents.  I also stopped and backed off of my timing to run cooler, worked some, but I was still able to get into the lower 400's at times.

I was taking so long that my GPS on Glympse timed out and I had to reset it.  I had quite a few people tell me they were tracking me riding along. 

I did get frustrated at the farm machinery holding me up a times.  They didn't care to let me pass and there was no pavement to pass.

My mom snapped this photo when I was coming down their road.

Made it halfway!  With all the roadside stops, I arrived in five hours at 4:10PM.  I was super excited to make the first 100 miles of the trip to my parents.  My mom had delicious food ready for me, but I couldn't rest for long.

I have never welded before in my life.  I have helped others dozens of times when they welded.  My dad always used a stick welder on the farm and he still had his welder.  His vision isn't the best and he said he would not weld it for me.  So I found some angle iron and he taught me how to weld.  I practiced for a half an hour and I thought I had the feel of what to do.

I managed to weld the angle iron to the rack and it looked pretty awesome.  I mounted the rack, but waited to mount the basket and weight until the morning.

And morning came quick.  I stayed up a little and talked with my parents, but the rooster woke me up dark and early.   I was kinda hoping to sleep in, but my sister left for school around 7AM so I was glad to see her before she left.

My mom made me finish the rest of the cherry pie before I left.

And she made sure my lights and mirrors were clean and ready for the return trip to Columbus.  I also upjetted the idle jet from 45 to 48 and the main jet from 90 to 92.   I left at 10:30AM on the dot.

Upjetting did the trick.  I was running around 370° for almost the entire throttle range.  I still wanna upjet one more, but I think I have a very minor air leak because I was running an 84 jet for months(unless the 84 is not properly labeled).  Anyway, I stopped for gas in Troy and then I hauled tail.

The only other stop I made was in a small town, Thackery. I was wondering how much the I weighed with the bike and gear so I stopped by their grain elevator and asked if they would weigh me.  They kinda chuckled and said sure... it was 480 lbs.  Not bad, but I was really taxing the motor for sure with all that weight.

I pressed on and made it home with no issues.  200 miles and tons of smiles.  Route 55 east of Troy was my favorite... hills, curves, and beautiful.  Super glad I made the trip, but don't know if I will take a spare motor if I do it again.   I arrived at 1:50PM so I shaved off 100 minutes because I wasn't stopping and working on the bike.  Such a blast.  I liked the idea of the #MopedAdventure sign, but I think it would work better at a moped rally.  I wanted to post the sign so if someone took a photo of me then they would know what to use for the hashtag.  When I am riding solo on back roads through the country there isn't anyone to snap photos and upload them. Haha, but all for fun.  Now I need to paint that rack!

And as for the gas... I used 3 gallons for the entire 200 mile trip. Not too shabby! 

As for the weather... a few spotty showers for Sunday, but most of the area will be staying dry.  Just a passing shower or two with a weak cold front.  We stay dry Monday and then a strong cold front brings rain for Tuesday night, Wednesday and possibly early Thursday.  Until then we stay mild with highs in the low to mid 70's. Then by the end of the week our highs will be staying in the 50's.  Back to the newscast, just wanted to share the photos from the journey.  Have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael