Update on next week's snow... Warmer

Everytime new model runs come in, they keep warming up. Below is the GFS model for snowfall totals and then on the right side what type of precipitation will be falling every 6 hours from Tuesday afternoon to Wednesday afternoon.  As you can see warm air pushes in and we switch to rain across most of Central Ohio through the majority of the overnight hours. Another thing you will notice is that band of pink running across Western and Northern Ohio. The areas that see the sleet and freezing rain could easily deal with power outages. Getting ice for a few hours will easily weigh down any power lines. That is the bigger story here for Ohio, not the snow. Ohio may actually not get very much snow unless you live in the far Northwestern portion. For Central Ohio we will be lucky to see a few inches of snow next Tuesday and Wednesday.

That is the long term forecast but for the short term, a little bit of snow for later today and then we warm up our temperatures switching to rain on and off for most of Saturday. So similar by the fashion of warming up to rain, but this first system will be light and next week packs a much stronger punch of moisture. At this point my concern with next week will be power outages where they see several hours of ice, and with so much rain, flooding will be a big problem considering that all of the rivers are frozen over.  I will keep you updated with posts because the system is still moving around some and it is not set in stone. So check back and have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Big snow coming?

There is a lot of buzz going around on social media about this "huge" snow next week. Some of the models were showing over a foot of snow and some of the extreme forecasters were posting model runs a few days ago trying to get more likes, shares, and eyeballs. When one model run shows a doomsday scenario, I don't do that. If nothing else is agreeing then why post an error run?

I will say that the models are in slightly better agreement for next week now, and THAT'S when I feel it is appropriate to share.

Let's first discuss this weekend. Late Friday into Saturday we will possibly see some wintry mix move in. Then it will warm and we will see rain showers across Central Ohio thru early Sunday.  We will actually warm into the 40's!  Flooding could be a concern. 

Then next week we cool off a little. Someone WILL see a decent amount of snow but the rain/snow dividing line will be the key as to WHO will see all the snow. The models agree that somewhere over Ohio will be that line. What they cannot agree on is the placement. Some areas along that line could see some heavy icing and, in my opinion, that is the bigger story, not the snow.  The time frame has been bouncing around as well between Tuesday thru Thursday. So there is a lot of wiggling going on with this system. The way it is looking right now... I could see Columbus seeing a lot of ice. Stay tuned and realize it is a fluid situation and nothing is nailed down just yet. I will keep you posted and the models below show you how much variability there is with this system.... And how sharp of a cutoff there is from a lot of snow to none at all. Have a good one.

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

First Warning Ice Center

Early last week I pitched the idea in the morning meeting to build an ice anchor center since the temperatures were going to be below freezing for quite a long time. Figured we might as well capitalize on the cards we were dealt. Well... Another Arctic blast later the logistics were ironed out and we have the First Warning Ice Center. It is a fully operational green screen and looks great on TV.

Taking a look at later this week... Some changes since the last entry.

We will see another cold night tonight with temps dropping to about -5 to -10, followed by slowly warming temperatures heading into the weekend. We will see some light snow early Friday morning and right now it is only looking like 1-2".  It has weakened a lot, and then Saturday into Sunday we will be above freezing most of the time meaning mostly rain. With all this snow and frozen rivers we could see some flooding.  Well, time for bed before my "Friday" out in these freezing temps. Have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael 

It's as cold as....

You can finish the rest of the title. Viewers have been tweeting me pictures of temps as cold as - 26 on their weather stations. Stay warm and safe out there!

Looking at the rest of the week. It looks like the American models still keeping us cold enough for all snow and the European is trying to warm us up. I kinda lean towards all snow now, but keep in mind, the rain/snow line will be very near and it could easily change. But another round of 3-5" of snow likely Thursday night into Friday morning then another round of snow later Saturday that appears to be a little weaker. (kinda like what we just saw Ehhh???)  I will keep an eye on it. Have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Polar Vortex 2?

I had some AMAZING photos submitted yesterday thanks to the snow that came through.  Aaron Rigsby sent in this great shot of the skyline at sunset last night.  Love it! 

So a couple rounds of winter weather on the way.  First off... Winter Weather Advisory until Noon Monday.

That is followed by a Wind Chill Warning from Noon Monday until 1PM Tuesday. (All of these advisories are as of 5:09PM Sunday.)  As far as Polar Vortex #2... I am sure media will take that term and bend it as far as they can.  This is your typical winter cold front with more juice than normal. 

On to the breakdown... Temperatures will continue to warm Sunday evening ahead of a cold front. Shoveling snow will be a good idea Sunday evening before the Arctic blast arrives for the start of the week and turns slush to solid ice.

Cold front Sunday night will bring light snow showers overnight into early Monday morning. Expecting generally less than 1" of additional snow by Monday morning.

Falling temperatures through the day Monday. Strong winds will continue to cause blowing snow and very cold wind chills. Morning wind chills will be around -10 to -15 and Monday afternoon's chills will be between -15 to -25.

The temperatures continue to fall Monday night with a low of -13 by Tuesday morning with wind chills between -25 to -35 Tuesday morning. We struggle to get back to zero for the high on Tuesday and then fall back to -7 for the low Wednesday.

Warmer temperatures push in for the later part of the week followed by some snow possible Thursday and a wintry mix heading into the weekend.  Stay tuned because models cannot agree on that exactly.  Have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Snow squalls and VERY cold temperatures on the way

I took this photo about three minutes AFTER it was sunny.  Heavy bands of snow were moving through this morning after the morning steady snow.  I had over 4" when I had to come to work.  Best way to measure the snow with blowing snow is by averaging areas that are not drifted.

Not very often do you see a Snow Squall Alert... decided to capture that!

Alright... so that was just Round 1.  Round 2 and Round 3 will get lighter, then Round 4 is the coldest temperatures we have seen in about 20 years or more.

A few more rounds of snow on the way. Partial clearing tonight will allow temperatures to plummet to near zero with wind chills around -12. Early Sunday another weak clipper system will bring an additional 1-3" of snow for the first half of the day. Blowing snow continues through the day Sunday with a few flurries.

Our temperatures warm late Sunday to near the freezing mark. A cold front will push through Sunday night and that will bring another light round of snow with up to 1" of additional snow is possible. Temperatures late Sunday night will begin to fall and continue until Tuesday morning.

A few flurries early Monday with morning temperatures in the mid teens. By the afternoon we will begin to see partial clearing and temps in the single digits.

The clearing will continue Monday night with lows approaching -13 and wind chills around -30. Frost bite will occur in around 10 minutes for exposed skin. The bitterly cold temperatures remain Tuesday and Wednesday then a slow warming trend heading toward the end of the week.

Next Saturday and Sunday could be VERY interesting.  If we see all snow then it could be a LOT of snow, but right now it looks like we will be right on the rain/snow line for Ohio.  More to come as it gets closer, but stay tuned to the forecast. Have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Snowy night

Snow covered roads tonight causing some issues for anyone driving.  A lot of accidents being reported.

The snow showers are continuing to fall and the heaviest snow is tracking south of I70. 

The latest HRRR Hi-Res forecast model is doing a "decent" job with the snow totals.  The snow will be gone by daybreak, and we are calling for 1-3" of snow.  The lower part of the range will be North of I-70 and the higher part of the range will be South of I-70.

We dry out Sunday, but another light round of snow will move through for Monday... then the bitter cold returns for Tuesday and Wednesday.  Some of the are could fall below zero, but that is the low I am going with for Columbus Wednesday morning.  More light snow Thursday followed by another cold blast Friday... and then more snow Saturday into Sunday.  Catching a pattern here?  Yea, no warm temps anytime soon and each round of snow will be light.  Keep the layers handy and have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Snow moving in

Good Thursday. I am blogging from the phone today. Tracking snow moving in for the late morning early afternoon. More snow will arrive overnight as well. In the two images below the first is the radar and you can see the snow moving through Indiana toward us. The second image is how much snow the forecast models are expecting to see by 5 p.m. tonight. We will generally see around an inch with some places seeing slightly more than that by this evening. More light snow is expected overnight and early Friday. We see a lull in the action heading into late Friday and early Saturday. More snow is expected for late Saturday into early Sunday. That system could bring a few inches of snow. I will keep an eye on it and let you know but I just wanted to at least shoot out a quick entry for a heads up on the snow for later today. Have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Beast Mode & snow on the way

I went outside to head to work yesterday... Truck wouldn't start.  Jumping my truck didn't help so I knew it had to be the starter.  So I hitched a ride to work.

A few friends won tickets to the Blue Jackets game so I felt bad backing out of that.  So I went to the game and it was a LOT of fun.  Jackets came back and scored in the final two minutes and the arena was CRAZY!  

We got home around 11PM and I was bound and determined to get the new starter installed before going to bed.  I finished a little after 1AM and was PUMPED... some would call it "Beast Mode."  I was cold, tired, and wet from the January rain, and a little claustrophobic from laying on the parking lot under my truck... but I was SUPER excited when the truck fired back up.  When trying to get the starter off, I was having a lot of trouble.  I watched half a dozen tutorial videos on YouTube, and I couldn't figure out why they seemed so easy... then I realized it was because all the videos had a V6 engine and I had a V8... so less room and more of a pain.  BUT I did see a guy rotate the starter 45° and that helped.  Either way... I love the feeling when you fix something yourself and know that every time I turn the key now I made that happen.

As far as the weather... cold temps are returning.  A few sprinkles or flurries tonight, but nothing of significance.  Temperatures will continue to fall tomorrow and we stay pretty cold through the weekend.  A weak disturbance late Thursday could bring some light snow and Saturday looks to bring a little more snow.  Neither look to be a winter "storm" criteria, but a few inches are possible later Saturday.   I will keep an eye on it and keep you posted.  Have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Snow with temps above 40 degrees? Could happen Tuesday

So we will stay dry for early Monday, then rain moves in for the afternoon and evening.  By Monday night the first cold front will move through.  It will allow only the temperatures very close to the surface to stay above freezing Monday night.  The same will occur on Tuesday afternoon and evening.  Our temperatures at the surface will be above freezing, but the warm temperatures will be very shallow and only a few hundred feet above the ground they will be below freezing.  So... snow will fall, but it will not have enough time to melt into rain.  There may be pockets of rain, but I love it when you get weird weather like this when it can snow and it is above freezing at the ground.  It makes people scratch their head... but since you read this, you won't be scratching your head.  Instead you can tell your friends that the warm air is too shallow.  ;)

After Tuesday we see colder temperatures and below freezing the rest of the week and into the weekend... except for Thursday.  We will warm up briefly on Thursday then another cold front.  So cold front 1 Monday PM, cold front 2 Tuesday PM, weak disturbance 1 Wednesday, cold front 3 Thursday PM, and finally weak disturbance 2 Friday PM into Saturday... so that is why we have the chance for rain/snow almost every single day for the week ahead.  All of it will be light and more of a nuisance than anything.  Back to the newscast... Have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Brutally cold week gone, so are moped parts

I looked a little funny when I came to work this week... but hey, when the wind chill is -35°F, you better look a little funny and puffy from all the layers.

I was back at Handy Bikes on Thursday helping load up the remaining moped parts.  There are so many amazing parts that are leaving the Buckeye state, but I am glad they will be going to a good home thanks to 1977 Mopeds buying up the entire warehouse. 

We were much more efficient with the packing this time and we filled that semi VERY full.  This was about thirty minutes before we decided we filled it too full.  One more semi load this upcoming week and it is done and gone.  

I spent Friday installing a Murray swing arm and new chains.  I also decided to go for the blue chain on the pedal side to match the colors.  I need to get new pedals that match better.  The "blue" ones look pretty purple.  Don't let anyone tell you that a swing arm swap is easy.  I dropped the motor then put it back only to see that I had some wires hanging out and I had to drop the motor again.

 

Regarding the forecast... Temps are still above freezing for now and so are the roads.  As we fall below freezing tonight we will see some icy spots.  Be careful out there in the morning on the bridges and overpasses.  More sunshine for Sunday afternoon.  Monday rain returns for the afternoon and then some light wintry mix on Tuesday and light snow for Wednesday.  All of it appears to be pretty light, but I am sure it will be enough to cause some problems on the roads.  Our temperatures remain pretty seasonal for the week ahead... by that I mean bouncing all over the place between the upper 40's for highs to start the workweek... to low 20's for highs to end of the workweek.  Have a good one!

Best,

Andrew Buck Michael

Snow for PARTS of Ohio tonight

Snow showers moving in from the Southwest tonight.  The temperatures across the Southeastern part of Ohio are too warm and will see rain instead.  The snow showers will last into the overnight hours and should be done and gone by daybreak Friday.

Here is the latest model output of how much snow can be expected.  Generally 1" of snow with some pockets of closer to 2" of snow.  It all depends on if you are located under some of the heavier banding.  However areas across the Southeastern part of Ohio will not see any snow at all.  Temperatures will continue to warm Friday and Saturday.  We are generally dry Friday, no heavy precip, but Saturday rain moves in and we could see about half an inch of rain.  Temperatures will bounce around the upcoming week, but no major arctic blasts anytime soon.  And I am happy about that.  Drive safe Friday morning and have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Sunday afternoon weather update

 

So the Low tracked just as expected.  It stayed west and it cut down on the snowfall totals for Central Ohio and much of Western Ohio.

I am still not sure why Columbus and most of Central Ohio is under the Winter Weather Advisory since this system will mostly be rain and a little snow later.

I see the rain switching over to snow for most of Central Ohio around midnight when most of the moisture and precipitation is pulling North.  That means once we finally get cold enough and fall below freezing then nothing is left to snow.  So that is why the snowfall totals have been cut down.  We have stayed in the warm sector.  We still saw the same "amount" of precipitation, but it just came in the form of rain.

The big story for the start of the workweek will be the bitterly cold temperatures.  By midnight Sunday night we will begin to see temperatures fall and they will fall throughout the day Monday and Monday night.  Monday morning the temperature will be around 5°F at daybreak with wind chills around -10°F.  Afternoon temps will be around -7°F with wind chills around -25°F.  Monday night we will bottom out around -10°F with wind chills between -25°F and -35°F.  Frost bite will occur in as little as five minutes or less.  Any outdoor activities should be avoided, but, if necessary, many layers will be needed to cover all exposed skin.


Another round of light snow for Thursday and then rain Saturday, as we warm up.  Until then, stay safe, warm, and have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

1,000th POST!!! (Oh, and a winter storm on the way)

 Finally made it to 1,000 blog entries!  How do people celebrate those?  I dunno....

First off, if you are free at 8:30, go visit the USTREAM chat: http://www.ustream.tv/channel/live-wx-chat  I will be answering weather questions about the winter storm on the way.

Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories for a lot of Central Ohio and especially NW Ohio.

Dry and chilly tonight and early Sunday.  Sunday midday, rain showers move in with rain/snow mix for Western Ohio.  The rain/snow mix line will continue to push East through the second half of Sunday and we will transition over to snow showers for Sunday night.  Snowfall totals, by Monday morning, for the Columbus Metro area look to be around 1-3".  Areas Northwest of Columbus will see more snow, with 3-6" possible and even higher totals for far Northern and Western Ohio.  Areas to the Southeast of Columbus will see more rain and less snow resulting in a snowfall total by Monday morning of generally Up to 1".  With the storm in Oklahoma on Saturday afternoon, a slight shift in direction could greatly adjust the snowfall totals, so stay tuned to the forecast for any changes.  Light snow showers remain Monday with any new accumulations less than an inch.

The winter storm is just the beginning of dangerous weather.  Our temperatures will fall Sunday night and continue falling until Tuesday morning.  By Monday morning the temperature will be near 0F with wind chills around -20F.  The temperatures will fall through the day to around -8F by Monday afternoon with wind chills around -30F.  By Tuesday morning we will bottom out around -12F in Columbus and even colder in the outlying areas.  Wind chills Tuesday morning will be between -30F and -40F.  Frost bite will occur in less than five minutes for exposed skin.  The record low Tuesday is -5F, set in 1884, so we are expecting to break a record 130 years old!

Make sure to bundle up for the days to come!  Jumping off of here to eat and then do the LIVE USTREAM chat.  See you there and have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Sunday's Tricky Forecast

Occasionally the weather in Ohio will throw you a curve ball... that is exactly what is on the way for Sunday.  Above I broke down a forecast model and keeping it as basic as possible.  There are brown lines that indicate the states... I have most of Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, and West Virginia in view.  The areas of green are precipitation intensity. There are solid black lines that indicate air pressure, called isobars.  In order to keep things simple, we will say that dashed lines are temperature.  They actually are heights in the atmosphere, but let's just say they are temperature.  So the dark blue dashed line is the freezing level.  The light blue lines are areas cold enough (or shallow enough) to see snow and the red line is where it would be too warm (too deep) for snow and we would see rain instead.  Right along that dashed dark blue line is the transition from rain to wintry mix to snow.  That area will vary based on the surface temperatures and a whole lot of variables.  So as you can see in the above image, the wintry mix is right over Ohio.

So the above images are from Sunday afternoon.  There are four models that I regularly use for my forecasts. The precip will start in Western Ohio in the morning Sunday and slowly push East into Central Ohio by midday and late afternoon for Eastern Ohio.  As you can see all of the models vary as to where the freezing line will be.  The location of the freezing line GREATLY alter snowfall totals.  Keep in mind that one inch of rain is roughly equal to ten inches of snow.  So any rain, sleet, or freezing rain for an hour or two could mean a few inches of snow IF it were cold enough.  The warm air will push east by the evening and we will all fall below freezing Sunday night... just as the system is moving out of here.

~~~ALL OF THE INFORMATION BELOW IS BASED OFF THE LATEST FORECAST MODELS AND THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ALTERED AS THE MODELS SLOWLY COME IN AGREEMENT~~~

So for far Northwestern Ohio, by Lima, Toledo, Findlay... it is looking like all snow for you with 5-8+" of snow.  For areas from Dayton to Marion to Akron... you will likely get into a little of the wintry mix and your snowfall totals will be less.  For Cincinnati to Columbus to East Liverpool... a little rain to wintry mix, then MAYBE some lingering snow left over, but not nearly as much as NW Ohio.  For SE Ohio, Chillicothe to Zanesville... you will see rain showers to wintry mix in the early evening, then very little snow, by comparison, by the late evening.   Again, this info will likely change some as we get closer, but the GFS has been running the coldest and it is slowly warming up and agreeing with the Euro, NAM, and CMC.   It is a very tricky forecast and the only places I feel confident, 48 hours out, giving a snowfall total forecast for... is areas that will see all snow, which is NW Ohio.  The rest of us will likely see some rain or wintry mix that will greatly cut down on our snowfall totals.

(Click image to enlarge)

One thing I can guarantee is that next Monday night into Tuesday is going to be VERY, VERY COLD for Ohio.  Likely breaking the record.  Factor in the winds and we will see wind chills around -30°F in Central Ohio.  The air temperature Tuesday morning will likely be around -10°F and we will struggle on Tuesday to get above 0°F for the high.  Make sure to fill up your anti-freeze in your cars!

I will keep an eye on things as it gets closer and have another update with more detail.  Have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

BTW, this is my 999 entry... next one is 1,000th entry!!!!

Snow for the New Year

Hope you all had a safe and Happy New Year.  Just wanted to do a quick check in on the weather. Still on track for some accumulating snow tonight. I guess tomorrow would be more accurate. The snow will move in just before daybreak on Thursday.  The system will be moving West to East and the heaviest snow will be the Northern portions of Ohio... From Toledo to Cleveland, where 6-10"+ are expected. Snow will move in for the North first then shift South. Areas around US 30, Lima to Mansfield, will see 4-6" and the totals will decrease the further south. For areas along I70 the totals will be around 2-4" and even less for Southern Ohio.

The snow will start around daybreak so it will accumulate during the day so we won't actually see these totals until Thursday evening when the snow ends. Then we dry out a couple days and more snow for Sunday. And that one looks to bring a lot more snow for Central Ohio. I will keep ya posted. Have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael