This one was a grind... But I finished! I ran the 2024 No Business 100 endurance run a couple weeks ago. I wanted to hold off on doing a blog post to let things soak in and also link to a special podcast episode I did on the race.
I took my recording gear, for my Weathering The Run podcast, to the race and interviewed a handful of runners during the pre-race dinner that took place the evening before the race. There were some really impressive runners at the race and it was great to hear some of their experiences running through some wild weather. I also did one post-race interview with a runner that ran the race wearing combat boots and cargo shorts. Feel free to give the episode a listen! My next episode was a listener-favorite last year: holiday episode where I talk with a running store owner about great gift ideas for the runners in your life. This may or may not come as a shock, but most significant owners have no idea what to buy their runners and they often make a common mistake... That episode comes out on November 20th.
Back to the race...
This was my "A" race for the year and I had not run another ultra race since Mohican 100 the year before, 16 months earlier. I throttled back during that time while I had Evan in preschool part of the day then I was with him the rest of the day. So my free time did not allow me to train as much and I was perfectly fine with that. So this race was on my calendar for a long time and I knew I needed to finish it in order to get my Western States lottery ticket.
The race started at 8AM and it was a beautiful fall day in Northern Tennessee. We would run around a bunch of rock outcroppings, along some scenic overlooks, and under the cliff overhangs.
We also ran underneath two rock arches while doing the 100 mile loop. We had amazing photos taken by the race photographers. This photo was taken by Nick Morgan. Misty Dawn was also there taking great shots along the course and at the finish line. It did get warm on Friday with temperatures getting into the lower 80s. The route is a big loop that goes through Tennessee and Kentucky with a little more than 14,000 feet of elevation climbing. We also had a handful of stream crossings where our feet had to get wet, including a river crossing twice where the water was about knee deep and 150 wide.
But man those views! So I ended up getting a lot of blisters on my toes because my first pair of shoes (Hoka Speed Mafate 4) were not big enough for the swelling from all the pounding. I did switch into a wider pair of shoes(Hoka Speedgoat 5, Wide) at mile 60, but the blisters had already formed. I also had trench foot from all the water crossings and higher humidity. We ended up getting some light rain during the night then some heavier rain on Saturday morning. My feet were very painful the final 40 miles and I was very grateful for my friend Joe for being my pace, or safety runner, to join me for the last 40 miles. I did the same for him in September when he ran Grindstone 100 in Virginia.
I love this shot of Joe following me for the final mile of the race and the trees were in peak color.
We grinded it out through the painful feet and got it finished! The 100 miles took me 30 hours and 47 minutes. I came in 62nd place. There were more than 260 people start the race and 149 finished and half of those finishers came in during the final 2 hours of the time that you are given to run the race. So there were a lot of people that dropped out from heat, stomach, feet, or other issues. It was a tough race, but absolutely beautiful! The other cool thing about the race is that it alternates direction each year and if you run the race in both directions then you get a special belt buckle for running the race in both directions. While I was running the race this year and in the pain, I swore I was not doing the race again, but the pain is gone and I want to see the portions that I missed during the night... So I plan on going back and running it again next year. I also want to run the Laurel Highlands race in Pennsylvania in June, which will get me my Western States qualifier earlier next year. For now I am enjoying running for the fun of it and I also joined the gym to start doing more strength training. I am hoping that it will help me with endurance for the later miles of these races and build muscle to climb the hills and mountains easier. Always room for improvement! Have a good one!
Well hello everyone! I wanted to share some data I dug up for our winter outlook. This is all very preliminary and just a hypothesis of what may be coming this winter. First, let's look at the big global picture. We had a relatively strong El Nino the last 12 months. El Nino is when the ocean surface in the central & eastern tropical Pacific warms up. That is shifting and the Pacific Ocean is showing signs of cooling down & switching back to La Nina. I used the image above (click to enlarge) to take a look at years when we were switching from a stronger El Nino one winter and transitioning back to La Nina heading into the following winter. I feel like 1966, 1970, 1973, 1983, 1998, 2007, 2010, and 2015 matched this the best. If anyone notes other years that should be included, let me know.
Now for Central Ohio, let's dive into our current situation...
Ohio is currently experiencing the worst drought since the Drought Monitor started in 2000. There have been a lot of people comparing this to 1988. This year is a little different because this has been a rapid onset of a drought. 1988 had 1987 to assist with the drought issues then. We were very dry in 1987 and we started 1988 very dry. We eventually did get more rain during the summer and late summer of 1988 to help bring Ohio out of the exceptional dry spell. Ohio was wetter than normal in 2022 and 2023. This year started with wetter than normal conditions for January, April, and May. But since June 1st Columbus has barely picked up 5" of rain. Normally we should have picked up around 15" of rain already. So we have had a rapid onset of a drought. This is important for the next comparison. Not only have we been very dry, but we have been very warm. Our temperatures so far, through Sept 16, have averaged a mean around 75°. The normal is 72.6° for June through October 1st. So let's dig into the numbers.
I wanted to look at the years that we went from a moderate or strong El Nino to La Nina, listed earlier. I also then did a tabulation for Columbus, Ohio of rain and temperature averages from June 1st through October 1st. I know we are a couple weeks away from October 1st, but our dry and warmer than normal pattern looks to continue through the end of the month. As you can see there are other years that are much wetter than this year. Actually all are wetter than this year. If you look at all of the years since Columbus has kept record, going back to 1878, this is the driest stretch we have ever had from June 1st through the middle of September. So this year is definitely an outlier with how dry it has been. As far as our temperatures, we are much warmer than normal too. Through today's date we are ranked as the 13th warmest stretch from June 1st through the middle of September. So a few years in the El Nino to La Nina are kind of similar. We can throw out 1966, 1970, 1973, and 2015. That only leaves us with 4 other years that are slightly drier than normal for the "summer" and near or above normal for temperatures.
So what happened those 4 years after drier and warmer "summers"? Well we ended up with a mixed bag. Two of the years were much cooler than normal. One year was much warmer than normal and the final year was near normal for temps. So we are not getting a good handle on the temperatures for the winter. When we look at the snowfall though for the 4 years they all indicate near normal or snowier winter for Central Ohio.
So what do I think we will experience in Central Ohio? Everyone wants to know now what will happen this winter. Based on the past years, it looks like this winter may make up for the last couple of years with very little snow. We may end up with near normal snowfall or more. But it is still too early to know for sure. We need to wait until December 1st. Why? Because we need to see where that polar jet stream (blue arrows) sets up to start the month of December. If it dives a littler farther south then we will likely trend a little cooler the rest of the winter. La Nina often brings wetter winters than normal, but if we trend colder then it would mean more snow. But if the polar jet stream does not dive quite as far south then we will likely be wetter than normal still, but we may end up with more rain than snow. Marshall McPeek takes a lot of time to dive into our winter forecast outlook. As a weather team we all chip in with what we see for the official winter prediction. This particular article is just a little of the behind the scenes look at early thoughts and an unofficial winter prognostication. So stay tuned as we get closer to the middle and end of fall as we continue to monitor the switch from El Nino to La Nina.
In the mean time, I have taken on some new things in my spare time. I officially closed my Balm By Buck business earlier this year. It was a fun run over the last 5 years running my own small business, but I was so busy with my kids and sports that getting everything shipped out on time was stressing me out. I did start a podcast in early 2023. It is called Weathering The Run. I talk to runners about the craziest weather they have run through and so far it has been very successful and I have loved hearing some of the stories. Feel free to follow along on Instagram for new episodes when they come out every 2 weeks. You can also find the podcast on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or all other popular podcast apps. I have kept most of my weather-related posts to Central Ohio on my work Facebook page for now. Thanks for stopping on by and have a good one!
