Early Winter 2024-2025 weather outlook for Central Ohio

 

Well hello everyone! I wanted to share some data I dug up for our winter outlook. This is all very preliminary and just a hypothesis of what may be coming this winter. First, let's look at the big global picture. We had a relatively strong El Nino the last 12 months. El Nino is when the ocean surface in the central & eastern tropical Pacific warms up. That is shifting and the Pacific Ocean is showing signs of cooling down & switching back to La Nina. I used the image above (click to enlarge) to take a look at years when we were switching from a stronger El Nino one winter and transitioning back to La Nina heading into the following winter. I feel like 1966, 1970, 1973, 1983, 1998, 2007, 2010, and 2015 matched this the best. If anyone notes other years that should be included, let me know.

Now for Central Ohio, let's dive into our current situation...

Ohio is currently experiencing the worst drought since the Drought Monitor started in 2000. There have been a lot of people comparing this to 1988. This year is a little different because this has been a rapid onset of a drought. 1988 had 1987 to assist with the drought issues then. We were very dry in 1987 and we started 1988 very dry. We eventually did get more rain during the summer and late summer of 1988 to help bring Ohio out of the exceptional dry spell. Ohio was wetter than normal in 2022 and 2023. This year started with wetter than normal conditions for January, April, and May. But since June 1st Columbus has barely picked up 5" of rain. Normally we should have picked up around 15" of rain already. So we have had a rapid onset of a drought. This is important for the next comparison. Not only have we been very dry, but we have been very warm. Our temperatures so far, through Sept 16, have averaged a mean around 75°. The normal is 72.6° for June through October 1st. So let's dig into the numbers.

I wanted to look at the years that we went from a moderate or strong El Nino to La Nina, listed earlier. I also then did a tabulation for Columbus, Ohio of rain and temperature averages from June 1st through October 1st. I know we are a couple weeks away from October 1st, but our dry and warmer than normal pattern looks to continue through the end of the month. As you can see there are other years that are much wetter than this year. Actually all are wetter than this year. If you look at all of the years since Columbus has kept record, going back to 1878, this is the driest stretch we have ever had from June 1st through the middle of September. So this year is definitely an outlier with how dry it has been. As far as our temperatures, we are much warmer than normal too. Through today's date we are ranked as the 13th warmest stretch from June 1st through the middle of September. So a few years in the El Nino to La Nina are kind of similar. We can throw out 1966, 1970, 1973, and 2015. That only leaves us with 4 other years that are slightly drier than normal for the "summer" and near or above normal for temperatures.

So what happened those 4 years after drier and warmer "summers"? Well we ended up with a mixed bag. Two of the years were much cooler than normal. One year was much warmer than normal and the final year was near normal for temps. So we are not getting a good handle on the temperatures for the winter. When we look at the snowfall though for the 4 years they all indicate near normal or snowier winter for Central Ohio. 

So what do I think we will experience in Central Ohio? Everyone wants to know now what will happen this winter. Based on the past years, it looks like this winter may make up for the last couple of years with very little snow. We may end up with near normal snowfall or more. But it is still too early to know for sure. We need to wait until December 1st. Why? Because we need to see where that polar jet stream (blue arrows) sets up to start the month of December. If it dives a littler farther south then we will likely trend a little cooler the rest of the winter. La Nina often brings wetter winters than normal, but if we trend colder then it would mean more snow. But if the polar jet stream does not dive quite as far south then we will likely be wetter than normal still, but we may end up with more rain than snow. Marshall McPeek takes a lot of time to dive into our winter forecast outlook. As a weather team we all chip in with what we see for the official winter prediction. This particular article is just a little of the behind the scenes look at early thoughts and an unofficial winter prognostication. So stay tuned as we get closer to the middle and end of fall as we continue to monitor the switch from El Nino to La Nina. 

In the mean time, I have taken on some new things in my spare time. I officially closed my Balm By Buck business earlier this year. It was a fun run over the last 5 years running my own small business, but I was so busy with my kids and sports that getting everything shipped out on time was stressing me out. I did start a podcast in early 2023. It is called Weathering The Run. I talk to runners about the craziest weather they have run through and so far it has been very successful and I have loved hearing some of the stories. Feel free to follow along on Instagram for new episodes when they come out every 2 weeks. You can also find the podcast on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or all other popular podcast apps. I have kept most of my weather-related posts to Central Ohio on my work Facebook page for now. Thanks for stopping on by and have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael